A common feature of many models of voter turnout is that increasing the perceived closeness of the election should increase voter turnout. However, cleanly testing this prediction is difficult and little is known about voter beliefs regarding the closeness of a given race. We conduct a field experiment during the 2010 US gubernatorial elections where we elicit voter beliefs about the closeness of the election before and after showing different polls, which, depending on treatment, indicate a close race or a not close race. We find that subjects update their beliefs in response to new information, but systematically overestimate the probability of a very close election. However, the decision to vote is unaffected by beliefs about the closeness of the election. A follow-up field experiment, conducted during the 2014 gubernatorial elections but at much larger scale, also points to little relationship between poll information about closeness and voter turnout.

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百万分之一：关于选举和选民投票率感知接近度的实地实验

许多选民投票率模型的一个共同特征是，增加选举的感知接近度应该会增加选民投票率。然而，要彻底检验这一预测是很困难的，而且人们对特定种族接近程度的投票信念知之甚少。我们在 2010 年美国州长选举期间进行了一项实地实验，在该实验中，我们在显示不同的民意调查之前和之后引发选民对选举接近度的看法，这取决于处理方式，表明是接近还是不接近。我们发现受试者会根据新信息更新他们的信念，但系统地高估了非常接近选举的可能性。然而，投票决定不受对选举接近度的看法的影响。后续田间试验，