As of this writing in June 2016, the markets are predicting Venezuela to be on the brink of default. On June 1, 2016, the 6 month CDS contract traded at about 7000bps which translates into a likelihood of default of over 90%. Our interest in the Venezuelan crisis is that its outstanding sovereign bonds have a unique set of contractual features that, in combination with its near-default status, have created a natural experiment. This experiment has the potential to shed light on one of the long standing questions that sits at the intersection of the fields of law and finance, the question of the degree to which financial markets price contract terms. We find evidence to suggest that at least within the confines of a near-default scenario, the markets are highly sensitive to even small differences in contract language.

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危机中的定价合同条款：2016 年委内瑞拉债券

截至 2016 年 6 月撰写本文时，市场预测委内瑞拉将处于违约边缘。2016 年 6 月 1 日，6 个月 CDS 合约的交易价格约为 7000 个基点，这意味着违约可能性超过 90%。我们对委内瑞拉危机的兴趣在于其未偿付的主权债券具有一套独特的合同特征，结合其近乎违约的状态，创造了一个自然实验。这项实验有可能阐明法律和金融领域交叉领域的一个长期存在的问题，即金融市场对合同条款进行定价的程度问题。我们发现证据表明，至少在接近违约的情况下，市场对合同语言的微小差异都非常敏感。