Abstract Providing information on the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes is becoming ever more critical. Modelling and evaluating the expected changes of the water resources over different spatial and time scales can be useful in several fields, e.g. agriculture, forestry and water management. Previously a Budyko-type spatially distributed long-term climate-runoff model was developed for Hungary. This research includes the validation of the model using historical precipitation and streamflow measurements for three nested sub-catchments of the Zala River Basin (Hungary), an essential runoff contributing region to Lake Balaton (the largest shallow lake in Central Europe). The differences between the calculated (from water balance) and the estimated (by the model) mean annual evapotranspiration varied between 0.4% and 3.6% in the validation periods in the sub-catchments examined. Predictions of the main components of the water balance (evapotranspiration and runoff) for the Zala Basin are also presented in this study using precipitation and temperature results of 12 regional climate model simulations (A1B scenario) as input data. According to the projections, the mean annual temperature will be higher from period to period (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100), while the change of the annual precipitation sum is not significant. The mean annual evapotranspiration rate is expected to increase slightly during the 21st century, while for runoff a substantial decrease can be anticipated which may exceed 40% by 2071–2100 relative to the reference period (1981–2010). As a result of this predicted reduction, the runoff from the Zala Basin may not be enough to balance the increased evaporation rate of Lake Balaton, transforming it into a closed lake without outflow.

中文翻译：

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基于修正Budyko框架的扎拉河流域（匈牙利）多模式气候水平衡预测

摘要 提供有关气候变化对水文过程影响的信息变得越来越重要。对水资源在不同空间和时间尺度上的预期变化进行建模和评估可以在多个领域中发挥作用，例如农业、林业和水资源管理。以前为匈牙利开发了一个 Budyko 型空间分布的长期气候径流模型。这项研究包括使用历史降水和流量测量值对扎拉河流域（匈牙利）的三个嵌套子集水区进行模型验证，扎拉河流域是巴拉顿湖（中欧最大的浅湖）的重要径流贡献区。计算的（来自水平衡）和估计的（通过模型）平均年蒸散量之间的差异在 0.4% 和 3 之间。在检查的子流域的验证期内为 6%。本研究还使用 12 个区域气候模型模拟（A1B 情景）的降水和温度结果作为输入数据，对 Zala 盆地水平衡的主要组成部分（蒸散和径流）进行了预测。根据预测，年平均气温将逐个时期（2011-2040、2041-2070、2071-2100）偏高，而年降水总量变化不显着。预计 21 世纪的年平均蒸散率将略有增加，而径流预计会大幅减少，到 2071-2100 年，相对于参考时期（1981-2010 年）可能会超过 40%。由于这种预测的减少，