ABSTRACT

This study analyzes the implementation of modular petroleum mini-refineries, testing the hypothesis that these facilities can be a feasible choice in countries where fuel demand is expected to increase, whereas uncertainties still last in the long-term fuel market. A simplified optimization model was developed and applied to compare conventional and modular mini-refineries under different scenarios. Findings showed that scale gains explain the larger margin of conventional plants when fuel demand is sufficiently high, but the modular units are more resilient to operate profitably when fuel demand falls. Modular units operating in parallel with larger traditional units may take advantage of this flexibility without compromising the economies of scale. The introduction of modular fast-building, fast and easy-decommissioning mini-refineries in Brazil can be an interesting solution to meet the country’s short-term fuel demand increase, whilst also dealing with long-term uncertainties.

摘要

本研究分析了模块化石油小型炼油厂的实施，检验了这些设施在燃料需求预计会增加的国家是可行选择的假设，而长期燃料市场的不确定性仍然存在。开发并应用了一个简化的优化模型来比较不同场景下的常规和模块化小型炼油厂。研究结果表明，当燃料需求足够高时，规模收益解释了传统工厂的更大利润率，但当燃料需求下降时，模块化机组更能恢复盈利。与较大的传统单元并行运行的模块化单元可以利用这种灵活性，而不会影响规模经济。引入模块化快建，