The proposed site of the Diamer Bhasha Dam in northern Pakistan is situated in an active tectonic zone with intensive seismicity, which makes it necessary for seismic hazard analysis (SHA). Deterministic and probabilistic approaches have been used for SHA of the dam site. The Main Mantle Thrust (MMT), Main Karakaram Thrust (MKT), Raikot-Sassi Fault (RKSF) and Kohistan Fault (KF) have been considered as major seismic sources, all of which can create maximum ground shaking with maximum potential earthquake (MPE). Deterministically estimated MPE for magnitudes of 7.8, 7.7, 7.6, and 7.1 can be produced from MMT, MKT, RKSF and KF, respectively. The corresponding peak ground accelerations (PGA) of 0.07, 0.11, 0.13 and 0.05 g can also be generated from these earthquakes, respectively. The deterministic analysis predicts a so-called floating earthquake as a MPE of magnitude = 7.1 as close as 10 km away from the site. The corresponding PGA was computed as 0.38 g for a maximum design earthquake at the project site. However, the probabilistic analysis revealed that the PGA with 50% probability of exceedance in 100 years is 0.18 g. Thus, this PGA value related to the operational basis earthquake (OBE) is suggested for the design of this project with shear wave velocity (V_s30) equal to 760 m/s under dense soil and soft rock conditions.

巴基斯坦北部 Diamer Bhasha 大坝的拟建地点位于地震活动强烈的活动构造带，因此需要进行地震危险性分析 (SHA)。确定性和概率方法已用于坝址的 SHA。主地幔逆冲断层（MMT）、主喀拉卡拉姆逆断层（MKT）、莱科特-萨西断层（RKSF）和科希斯坦断层（KF）被认为是主要的地震源，所有这些都可以产生最大潜在地震（MPE）的最大地面震动）。7.8、7.7、7.6 和 7.1 等的确定性估计 MPE 可以分别从 MMT、MKT、RKSF 和 KF 产生。这些地震也可以分别产生 0.07、0.11、0.13 和 0.05 g 的相应峰值地面加速度 (PGA)。确定性分析将所谓的浮动地震预测为 MPE，震级 = 7.1，距离现场 10 公里。对于项目现场的最大设计地震，相应的 PGA 计算为 0.38 g。但是，概率分析显示，100 年内超过 50% 的概率的 PGA 为 0.18 g。因此，建议将此与操作基础地震（OBE）相关的 PGA 值用于该项目的剪切波速度（V _s30 ) 在致密土壤和软岩条件下等于 760 m/s。