1. The Asian longhorned beetle (ALB) Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is an important wood-boring pest that has caused substantial damage to broadleaf trees in Asia, North America, and Europe.
2. We used the modelling software CLIMEX to project the potential global distribution of ALB based on both historical (1987–2016) and future (2021–2050) climate conditions. ALB has possible hosts in 37 genera, and their known distributions were incorporated into the model to assess their effect on pest distribution.
3. Suitable regions for ALB are predicted to be widely distributed under both historical and future climate conditions, and across all continents except Antarctica. With climate change, climate suitability would increase in the regions north of 30°N and decline in most regions south of 30°N.
4. The area of most climate-suitable regions would be covered by potential hosts, and optimum hosts would dominate. The possibility of ALB outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere is much higher than in the Southern Hemisphere, owing to the richer abundance of hosts.
5. These results provide theoretical guidance for developing effective ALB monitoring and mitigation measures.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下亚洲长角甲虫 Anoplophora glabripennis（鞘翅目：天牛科）的潜在全球分布预测

1. 亚洲长角甲虫 (ALB) Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky)（鞘翅目：天牛科）是一种重要的蛀木害虫，对亚洲、北美和欧洲的阔叶树造成了严重破坏。
2. 我们使用建模软件 CLIMEX 根据历史（1987-2016）和未来（2021-2050）气候条件预测 ALB 的潜在全球分布。ALB 有 37 个属的可能宿主，它们的已知分布被纳入模型以评估它们对害虫分布的影响。
3. 在历史和未来的气候条件下，预计 ALB 的适宜区域将广泛分布于除南极洲以外的所有大陆。随着气候变化，北纬30°以北地区气候适宜性增加，北纬30°以南大部分地区气候适宜性下降。
4. 大多数气候适宜区域的区域将被潜在宿主覆盖，最佳宿主将占主导地位。由于宿主更丰富，北半球爆发 ALB 的可能性远高于南半球。
5. 这些结果为制定有效的 ALB 监测和缓解措施提供了理论指导。