Environmental shocks in the form of natural disasters are well known for their impact on domestic economies. Less known, however, is their impact on the global economy. The scant existing literature suggests that macro-economic impacts manifest in observed empirical decreases in international trade. The literature, however, does not examine whether the impact of natural disasters on trade varies for trading partners with differing levels of market integration. This paper examines if preferential liberalization serves to protect or buffer against the negative economic consequences of natural disasters. I show that deep preferential liberalization can not only protect countries against the negative macro-economic impact of natural disasters but can actually allow countries to increase exports during natural disaster events that otherwise induce trade decline. These findings suggest that by allowing countries to expand the quantity and the range of exports, preferential trade agreements lead to enhanced resilience against exogenous shocks.

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国际合作与自然灾害：来自贸易协定的证据

自然灾害形式的环境冲击因其对国内经济的影响而广为人知。然而，鲜为人知的是它们对全球经济的影响。现有文献很少表明，宏观经济影响体现在观察到的国际贸易经验下降。然而，文献没有研究自然灾害对贸易的影响是否因市场一体化程度不同的贸易伙伴而异。本文研究了优惠自由化是否有助于保护或缓冲自然灾害的负面经济后果。我表明，深度优惠自由化不仅可以保护各国免受自然灾害的负面宏观经济影响，而且实际上可以让各国在自然灾害事件期间增加出口，否则会导致贸易下降。这些发现表明，通过允许各国扩大出口的数量和范围，优惠贸易协定可以增强抵御外来冲击的能力。