International relations often include orders of smaller powers led by major powers. Perhaps the most significant aspect of international order is whether the major power leader is restrained or nonrestrained. Restrained major powers respect smaller powers’ preferences, eschew wielding power to impose their preferences, and avoid violating the smaller powers’ sovereignties, often using binding institutions and rules. Nonrestrained major powers violate decision-making rules, seek to impose their preferences, and violate smaller powers’ sovereignties using coercion and force. This article asks, what causes an order to evolve from restrained to nonrestrained? It argues that when a major power grows in strength relative to smaller power order members, the major power becomes more likely to abandon restraint, using coercion and force to impose its preferences on the order. Further, there is a snowball effect, as initial acts of nonrestraint undermine the credibility of the major power's commitment to restraint, encouraging smaller powers to exit the order, fueling further major power nonrestraint. The theory is tested on the fifth-century BCE Athenian order. Athens’ transition from restraint to nonrestraint, what some call a transition from alliance to empire, supports the predictions of the theory. Neither ideology nor rent-seeking theories explain this transition.

中文翻译：

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格列佛出狱？国际秩序、约束和古雅典案例

国际关系通常包括由大国领导的小国秩序。或许国际秩序最重要的方面是大国领导人是克制的还是非克制的。受约束的大国尊重小国的偏好，避免使用权力强加他们的偏好，避免侵犯小国的主权，通常使用具有约束力的制度和规则。不受约束的大国违反决策规则，试图强加自己的偏好，并使用胁迫和武力侵犯小国的主权。这篇文章问，是什么导致了命令从克制到非克制的演变？它认为，当大国相对于较小的权力秩序成员实力增强时，大国更有可能放弃克制，使用胁迫和武力将其偏好强加于秩序。此外，还有滚雪球效应，因为最初的不克制行为破坏了大国克制承诺的可信度，鼓励较小的大国退出秩序，助长了大国的进一步不克制。该理论在公元前五世纪的雅典秩序中得到了检验。雅典从克制到非克制的转变，也就是有人所说的从联盟到帝国的转变，支持了该理论的预测。意识形态和寻租理论都不能解释这种转变。该理论在公元前五世纪的雅典秩序中得到了检验。雅典从克制到非克制的转变，也就是有人所说的从联盟到帝国的转变，支持了该理论的预测。意识形态和寻租理论都不能解释这种转变。该理论在公元前五世纪的雅典秩序中得到了检验。雅典从克制到非克制的转变，也就是有人所说的从联盟到帝国的转变，支持了该理论的预测。意识形态和寻租理论都不能解释这种转变。