Services, which are less traded than goods, rose from 55% of world expenditure in 1970 to 75% in 2015. Using a Ricardian trade model incorporating endogenous structural change, we quantify how this substantial shift in consumption has affected trade. Without structural change, we find that the world trade to GDP ratio would be 13 percentage points higher by 2015, about half the boost delivered from declining trade costs. In addition, a world without structural change would have had about 40% greater welfare gains from the trade integration over the past four decades. Absent further reductions in trade costs, ongoing structural change implies that world trade as a share of GDP would eventually decline. Going forward, higher-income countries gain relatively more from reducing services trade costs than from reducing goods trade costs.

中文翻译：

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结构变化与全球贸易

贸易量低于商品的服务从 1970 年占世界支出的 55% 上升到 2015 年的 75%。使用包含内生结构变化的李嘉图贸易模型，我们量化了消费的这种重大转变如何影响贸易。如果没有结构性变化，我们发现到 2015 年，世界贸易与 GDP 的比率将提高 13 个百分点，约为贸易成本下降带来的推动力的一半。此外，一个没有结构变化的世界在过去 40 年中从贸易一体化中获得的福利收益将增加约 40%。如果贸易成本没有进一步降低，持续的结构变化意味着世界贸易占 GDP 的比重最终会下降。展望未来，与降低商品贸易成本相比，高收入国家从降低服务贸易成本中获得的收益相对更多。