It is challenging to empirically test if emerging markets employ countercyclical capital flow management to combat the large flows driven by global factors, and whether such policy is effective in containing capital flows. The first challenge is that a good gauge of the cyclical dynamics of capital flow management measures is hard to obtain. In addition, the causal effects of capital flow management on capital flows are difficult to establish as such policies are usually endogenous responses to capital flows. We address these issues by using U.S. monetary policy shocks as instruments for a recently developed measure of capital flow management that captures both extensive and intensive margins of policy actions. We find that for a panel of 15 emerging market economies, U.S. monetary policy shocks at quarter t − 1 lead to adjustments to the capital flow management in these countries at t, which then affect capital flows at t + 1. In particular, inflow tightening actions increase after dovish U.S. monetary policy shocks and they materially dampen future net portfolio liability inflows.

实证检验新兴市场是否采用逆周期资本流动管理来应对全球因素驱动的大规模流动，以及这种政策是否有效遏制资本流动，具有挑战性。第一个挑战是很难很好地衡量资本流动管理措施的周期性动态。此外，资本流动管理对资本流动的因果效应很难确定，因为这些政策通常是对资本流动的内生反应。我们通过使用美国货币政策冲击作为最近开发的资本流动管理措施的工具来解决这些问题，该措施捕获了政策行动的广泛和密集边际。我们发现，对于 15 个新兴市场经济体，美国货币政策在第t季度受到冲击− 1 导致这些国家在 t 时对资本流动管理进行调整，进而影响t + 1 时的资本流动。特别是，在温和的美国货币政策冲击之后，流入紧缩行动增加，并显着抑制了未来的净投资组合负债流入。