Existing studies show that, in standard New Keynesian models, uncertainty shocks manifest as cost-push shocks due to the precautionary pricing channel. We study optimal monetary policy in response to uncertainty shocks when the precautionary pricing channel is operative. We show that, in the absence of real imperfections, the optimal monetary policy fully stabilizes the output gap and inflation, implying no policy trade-offs. Our result suggests that precautionary pricing matters only insofar as expected inflation is volatile. Thus, a simple Taylor rule that places high weight on inflation leads to a stabilized output gap, thereby attaining the “divine coincidence”.

现有研究表明，在标准的新凯恩斯主义模型中，由于预防性定价渠道，不确定性冲击表现为成本推动冲击。我们研究了在预防性定价渠道有效时应对不确定性冲击的最优货币政策。我们表明，在没有实际缺陷的情况下，最优货币政策完全稳定了产出缺口和通货膨胀，意味着没有政策权衡。我们的结果表明，预防性定价仅在预期通胀波动的情况下才重要。因此，一个简单的泰勒规则将通货膨胀置于高权重会导致稳定的产出缺口，从而达到“神圣的巧合”。