ABSTRACT

This paper explores the production of educational policy discourse based on a view of increasing future unpredictability, focusing on how educational policy knowledge is reconceptualized as a form of anticipatory regime. Specifically, we investigate the Israeli Ministry of Education’s Future-Oriented Pedagogy Research and Development Unit, analyzing how the unit produces ways of knowing for policymaking based on the epistemic value of anticipation. Through critical policy analysis of the unit’s documents, we explore its structure and rationale, describing two key epistemological mechanisms driving anticipatory educational policy. First, the appeal to ‘trends’ as a means of generating a certain vision of the future. The centrality of trends establishes a discourse in which policies are subordinated to a future that is at once unpredictable yet inevitable. Second, the introduction of ‘adaptivity’ as a key educational response to unpredictability, positioning constant change and reaction to external developments as the organizing principle of educational systems.

摘要

本文探讨了基于未来不可预测性增加的观点的教育政策话语的产生，重点关注教育政策知识如何被重新概念化为一种预期制度的形式。具体而言，我们调查了以色列教育部面向未来的教学法研究与发展部门，分析了该部门如何根据预期的认知价值为决策制定了解方式。通过对单位文件的批判性政策分析，我们探讨了其结构和基本原理，描述了推动预期教育政策的两个关键认识论机制。首先，诉诸“趋势”作为产生某种未来愿景的手段。趋势的中心地位建立了一种话语，在这种话语中，政策从属于一个既不可预测又不可避免的未来。其次，引入“适应性”作为对不可预测性的关键教育反应，将不断变化和对外部发展的反应定位为教育系统的组织原则。