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Global macroeconomic impacts of demographic change
The World Economy ( IF 2.000 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-14 , DOI: 10.1111/twec.13166
Weifeng Liu 1 , Warwick McKibbin 1
Affiliation  

The world has been experiencing dramatic demographic change since the 1950s, with almost all countries facing ageing challenges this coming century. However, the timing and speed of this demographic transition are significantly asymmetric across countries. This paper examines the impacts of global demographic change on macroeconomic conditions, international trade and capital flows in major economies in a global multi-region and multi-sector general equilibrium model. We separately simulate demographic shocks in six regions of the world economy to understand how each shock individually affects the world economy and then combine these shocks to obtain the consequences of global demographic change. The paper finds that future demographic change will significantly impact each region's GDP, changing the landscape of the world economy. However, the spillover effects on GDP across the countries are relatively small. In young economies such as emerging Asia and Africa, while economic growth will significantly benefit from demographic dividends, demographic change does not improve per capita GDP. In ageing economies such as Japan and Europe, population ageing will decrease the real interest rate. However, this impact will be offset by rising interest rates in young economies. Due to the differential real interest rates, capital will flow from more ageing to less ageing economies. These capital flows can be substantial and beneficial for all economies.

中文翻译:

人口变化对全球宏观经济的影响

自 1950 年代以来,世界一直在经历巨大的人口变化,几乎所有国家都在下个世纪面临老龄化挑战。然而,这种人口结构转变的时间和速度在各国之间明显不对称。本文在全球多区域和多部门一般均衡模型中考察了全球人口变化对主要经济体的宏观经济状况、国际贸易和资本流动的影响。我们分别模拟了世界经济六个地区的人口冲击,以了解每个冲击如何单独影响世界经济,然后将这些冲击结合起来以获得全球人口变化的后果。论文发现,未来的人口变化将显着影响每个地区的 GDP,从而改变世界经济格局。然而,对各国 GDP 的溢出效应相对较小。在亚洲和非洲等新兴经济体,虽然经济增长将显着受益于人口红利,但人口变化并没有提高人均 GDP。在日本和欧洲等老龄化经济体中,人口老龄化将降低实际利率。然而,这种影响将被年轻经济体的利率上升所抵消。由于实际利率存在差异,资本将从老龄化程度较高的经济体流向老龄化程度较低的经济体。这些资本流动对所有经济体都可能是巨大的和有益的。人口变化不会提高人均 GDP。在日本和欧洲等老龄化经济体中,人口老龄化将降低实际利率。然而,这种影响将被年轻经济体的利率上升所抵消。由于实际利率存在差异,资本将从老龄化程度较高的经济体流向老龄化程度较低的经济体。这些资本流动对所有经济体都可能是巨大的和有益的。人口变化不会提高人均 GDP。在日本和欧洲等老龄化经济体中,人口老龄化将降低实际利率。然而,这种影响将被年轻经济体的利率上升所抵消。由于实际利率存在差异,资本将从老龄化程度较高的经济体流向老龄化程度较低的经济体。这些资本流动对所有经济体都可能是巨大的和有益的。
更新日期:2021-07-14
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