Ensuring an adequate, reliable, clean, and affordable water supply for citizens and industries requires informed, long-range water supply planning, which is critically important for water security. A balance between water supply and demand must be considered for a long-term plan. However, water demand projections are often highly uncertain. Climate change could impact the hydrologic processes, and consequently, threaten water supply. Thus, understanding the uncertainties in future water demand and climate is critical for developing a sound water supply plan. In Illinois, regional water supply planning attempts to explore the impacts of future water demand and climate on water supply using scenario analyses and hydrologic modeling. This study is aimed at developing a water supply planning framework that considers both future water demand and climate change impacts. This framework is based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to simulate the watershed hydrology and conduct scenario analyses that consider the uncertainties in both future water demand and climate as well as their impacts on water supply. The framework was applied to water supply planning efforts in the Kankakee River watershed. The Kankakee River watershed model was calibrated and validated to observed streamflow records at four long-term United States Geological Survey streamflow gages. Because of the many model parameters involved, the calibration process was automated and was followed by a manual refinement, resulting in good model performance. Long-range water demand projections were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey. Six future water demand scenarios were established based on a suite of assumptions. Climate scenarios were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Projection Phase 5 datasets. Three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, are used in the study. The scenario simulation results demonstrated that climate change appears to have a greater impact on water availability in the study area than water demand. The framework developed in this study can also be used to explore the impacts of uncertainties of water demand and climate on water supply and can be extended to other regions and watersheds.

中文翻译：

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考虑未来水需求和气候不确定性的供水规划：以伊利诺伊州流域为例

确保为公民和工业提供充足、可靠、清洁和负担得起的供水需要知情的长期供水规划，这对于水安全至关重要。长期计划必须考虑供水和需求之间的平衡。然而，水需求预测往往具有高度不确定性。气候变化可能影响水文过程，从而威胁供水。因此，了解未来水需求和气候的不确定性对于制定合理的供水计划至关重要。在伊利诺伊州，区域供水规划试图通过情景分析和水文建模探索未来的用水需求和气候对供水的影响。本研究旨在开发一个考虑未来水需求和气候变化影响的供水规划框架。该框架基于水土评估工具，模拟流域水文并进行情景分析，考虑未来水需求和气候的不确定性及其对供水的影响。该框架应用于 Kankakee 河流域的供水规划工作。Kankakee 河流域模型经过校准和验证，以观察美国地质调查局四个长期流量计的流量记录。由于涉及许多模型参数，校准过程是自动化的，然后是手动细化，从而获得了良好的模型性能。伊利诺伊州水调查编制了长期用水需求预测。基于一系列假设建立了六种未来用水需求情景。气候情景是从耦合模型比对预测第 5 阶段数据集中获得的。研究中使用了三个代表性浓度途径 (RCP)，RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5。情景模拟结果表明，气候变化对研究区域水资源可用性的影响似乎大于对水资源需求的影响。本研究开发的框架还可用于探索水需求和气候的不确定性对供水的影响，并可扩展到其他地区和流域。气候情景是从耦合模型比对预测第 5 阶段数据集中获得的。研究中使用了三个代表性浓度途径 (RCP)，RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5。情景模拟结果表明，气候变化对研究区域水资源可用性的影响似乎大于对水资源需求的影响。本研究开发的框架还可用于探索水需求和气候的不确定性对供水的影响，并可扩展到其他地区和流域。气候情景是从耦合模型比对预测第 5 阶段数据集中获得的。研究中使用了三个代表性浓度途径 (RCP)，RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5。情景模拟结果表明，气候变化对研究区域水资源可用性的影响似乎大于对水资源需求的影响。本研究开发的框架还可用于探索水需求和气候的不确定性对供水的影响，并可扩展到其他地区和流域。情景模拟结果表明，气候变化对研究区域水资源可用性的影响似乎大于对水资源需求的影响。本研究开发的框架还可用于探索水需求和气候的不确定性对供水的影响，并可扩展到其他地区和流域。情景模拟结果表明，气候变化对研究区域水资源可用性的影响似乎大于对水资源需求的影响。本研究开发的框架还可用于探索水需求和气候的不确定性对供水的影响，并可扩展到其他地区和流域。