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Determination of a safety criterion via risk assessment of marine accidents based on a Markov model with five states and MCMC simulation and on three risk factors
Ocean Engineering ( IF 5 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-15 , DOI: 10.1016/j.oceaneng.2021.109000
Min Hyok Jon 1 , Yun Pyong Kim 1 , Uk Choe 2
Affiliation  

Risk modeling of marine accidents involves many technical and environmental safety factors which cannot be predicted in advance. The aim of this paper is to determine a safety criterion via risk assessment of marine accidents for a certain sea area. The risk is assessed with a combination of two approaches: one is based on a Markov model and MCMC simulation, and the other on three risk factors. On the one hand, the state space of the Markov model consists of five states considering major accident types and its transition rates are obtained by MCMC simulation. On the other hand, accident occurrence probabilities are modeled based on the accident frequencies according to three risk factors—sea state, traffic density and ship's length, respectively. The risk value is estimated as a weighted average of results from the two approaches. The safety criterion for navigation is determined based on a set of risk values obtained from the historical accident data for the sea area. The proposed method is illustrated with a numerical example, performing a sensitivity analysis and comparing the safety criterion with risk values for the accidents. The comparing results are in good agreement.



中文翻译:

基于五状态马尔可夫模型和 MCMC 模拟以及三个风险因素,通过海上事故风险评估确定安全标准

海上事故风险建模涉及许多无法提前预测的技术和环境安全因素。本文的目的是通过对特定海域的海上事故风险评估来确定安全标准。风险评估结合两种方法:一种基于马尔可夫模型和 MCMC 模拟,另一种基于三个风险因素。一方面,马尔可夫模型的状态空间由五个考虑重大事故类型的状态组成,其过渡率通过MCMC模拟得到。另一方面,事故发生概率是基于事故频率根据三个风险因素——海况、交通密度和船舶长度分别建模的。风险值估计为两种方法结果的加权平均值。航行的安全标准是根据从该海域的历史事故数据中获得的一组风险值来确定的。所提出的方法通过一个数值例子来说明,执行敏感性分析并将安全标准与事故的风险值进行比较。比较结果吻合良好。

更新日期:2021-07-15
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