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Study on the early warning and forecasting of flash floods in small watersheds based on the rainfall pattern of risk probability combination
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment ( IF 4.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-14 , DOI: 10.1007/s00477-021-02059-0
Lu Lu 1 , Wenlin Yuan 1 , Chengguo Su 1 , Denghua Yan 1, 2 , Zening Wu 1 , Qianyu Gao 3
Affiliation  

Flash floods cause great harm to people’s lives and property safety. Rainfall is one of the main causes of flash floods in small watersheds. The uncertainty of rainfall events results in inconsistency between the traditional single rainfall pattern and the actual rainfall process, which poses a great challenge for the early warning and forecasting of flash floods. To carry out the effective flash flood early warning and forecasting, this paper proposes a novel rainfall pattern by coupling total rainfall and peak rainfall intensity based on copula functions, i.e., the rainfall pattern of risk probability combination (RPRPC). On this basis, the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) hydrological model is used to simulate the rainfall-runoff process, the trial algorithm is used to calculate the critical rainfall (CR), and the optimistic-general-pessimistic (O–G-P) early warning mode considering the decision maker's risk preference is proposed. The small watershed of Xinxian in Henan province, China, is taken as a case study for calculation. The results show that the RPRPC is feasible and closer to the actual rainfall process than the traditional rainfall pattern, Frank copula function is the best for determining the joint distribution function of total rainfall and peak rainfall intensity, and the HEC-HMS model can be applied to small watersheds in hilly areas. Additionally, both RPRPC and antecedent soil moisture condition (ASMC) have influence on CR, and the variation of RPRPC will change the influence of ASMC on CR. Finally, the effectiveness of O–G-P early warning mode is verified.



中文翻译:

基于风险概率组合降雨模式的小流域山洪灾害预警预报研究

山洪暴发对人们的生命财产安全造成极大危害。降雨是小流域发生山洪暴发的主要原因之一。降雨事件的不确定性导致传统的单一降雨模式与实际降雨过程不一致,这对山洪暴发的预警和预报提出了巨大挑战。为进行有效的山洪预警预报,本文提出了一种基于copula函数耦合总降雨量和峰值降雨强度的新型降雨模式,即风险概率组合降雨模式(RPRPC)。在此基础上,利用水文工程中心-水文建模系统(HEC-HMS)水文模型模拟降雨-径流过程,采用试验算法计算临界降雨(CR),并提出了考虑决策者风险偏好的乐观-一般-悲观(O-GP)预警模式。以河南省新县小流域为例进行计算。结果表明,RPRPC是可行的,比传统降雨模式更接近实际降雨过程,Frank copula函数最适合确定总降雨量和峰值降雨强度的联合分布函数,可以应用HEC-HMS模型到丘陵地区的小流域。此外,RPRPC 和前期土壤水分条件(ASMC)都对 CR 有影响,RPRPC 的变化会改变 ASMC 对 CR 的影响。最后验证了O-GP预警模式的有效性。

更新日期:2021-07-14
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