We develop a simple theoretical framework that can be used not only to assess the stability of debt, but also to evaluate the sustainability of the commitments of the public sector in the presence of entitlement spending. We model the optimal intertemporal path of fiscal variables and the optimal policy responses in this environment, which requires a dynamic framework. Our analysis suggests that even with near-zero interest rates the stability of debt is not guaranteed and that the sustainability of public finances depends on the level of taxes and the persistence of expenditure, as much as on the level of debt. We estimate the model with panel data techniques, finding that our modelling strategy is supported by the empirical evidence and we use calibrated versions of our model to compare different countries.

中文翻译：

---

福利支出下的财政可持续性

我们开发了一个简单的理论框架，不仅可以用来评估债务的稳定性，还可以用来评估在存在权利支出的情况下公共部门承诺的可持续性。我们对财政变量的最佳跨期路径和这种环境下的最佳政策反应进行建模，这需要一个动态框架。我们的分析表明，即使利率接近于零，也无法保证债务的稳定性，公共财政的可持续性取决于税收水平和支出的持续性，以及债务水平。我们使用面板数据技术估计模型，发现我们的建模策略得到了经验证据的支持，我们使用模型的校准版本来比较不同的国家。