Historical records are incomplete templates for preparing for an uncertain future. The global utility of past ecological knowledge for present/future purposes is questioned as we move from Holocene to Anthropocene. To increase the adaptive capacity of today’s societies, generalizable strategies must be identified for coping with uncertainty over a wide range of conditions and contingencies. We identify two key principles that increase adaptive capacities: diversification and precautionary heuristics. These sharply contrast with the present global state represented by the global production ecosystem characterized by: (1) homogenization and simplification of cultural practices and resource bases; (2) increased global connectivity and forced dissolution of cultural borders; and (3) centralization and intensification of modes of resource production and extraction. We highlight that responses of smaller-scale societies to risks and uncertainties are in many cases emulated by professionals in the high reliability management in today’s critical infrastructures. This provides a modern template for managing unpredictability in the Anthropocene.

中文翻译：

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在没有生态模板的世界中人类生存的教训：我们可以从小规模社会中学到什么？

历史记录是为不确定的未来做准备的不完整模板。随着我们从全新世转移到人类世，过去生态知识对现在/未来目的的全球效用受到质疑。为了提高当今社会的适应能力，必须确定可推广的战略，以应对各种条件和突发事件的不确定性。我们确定了提高适应能力的两个关键原则：多样化和预防性启发。这些与当前以全球生产生态系统为代表的全球状态形成鲜明对比，其特点是：（1）文化实践和资源基础的同质化和简化；(2) 全球连通性增强，文化边界被迫解体；(3) 资源生产和开采方式的集中和集约化。我们强调，在许多情况下，小规模社会对风险和不确定性的反应是由当今关键基础设施的高可靠性管理专业人士效仿的。这为管理人类世的不可预测性提供了一个现代模板。