Since the 2007 housing crisis in the United States, many countries have begun implementing various macroprudential policies to curb the ongoing rise in housing prices. As there is no clear consensus in the literature on the efficacy of these interventions, understanding their short-term impacts is crucial in informing future policy designs. Adapting a new econometric technique, we examine the short-term impact of home purchase restrictions in Singapore, accounting for the short panel nature of the data and the existence of dynamic, spatial, spatiotemporal, and unit-specific effects. Using quarterly housing data over 2012Q4-2014Q2, we find that public housing prices decrease by 3%–5% in the four quarters following policy implementation, but transaction volume does not change. These effects are likely driven by a decrease in the housing demand and the inelastic housing supply in the short run. We also show that models that ignore spatial and dynamic effects can overestimate policy effects.

自2007年美国房市危机以来，许多国家开始实施各种宏观审慎政策，遏制房价持续上涨。由于文献中对这些干预措施的有效性没有明确的共识，因此了解它们的短期影响对于为未来的政策设计提供信息至关重要。我们采用了一种新的计量经济学技术，研究了新加坡购房限制的短期影响，考虑了数据的短面板性质以及动态、空间、时空和单位特定效应的存在。使用2012Q4-2014Q2的季度住房数据，我们发现政策实施后的四个季度，公共住房价格下降了3%-5%，但交易量没有变化。这些影响可能是由短期内住房需求下降和住房供应缺乏弹性造成的。我们还表明，忽略空间和动态效应的模型可能会高估政策效应。