This study aims to determine whether there is convergence in house prices across a sample of European economies, including members and non-members of the Eurozone. Overall the literature has found no evidence of convergence of house prices across Europe. Using data from twelve countries over the time period 2004Q2 to 2016Q3 we test for the null hypothesis of convergence against an alternative of divergence (or club convergence) and apply a Bayesian dynamic panel model to determine house price dynamics and drivers. The results suggest the presence of five housing market clubs across Europe but there is no evidence of a Eurozone club. In addition we find that the main determinants of real house prices are mainly fiscal factors and unemployment. Given the significance of housing markets to the economy and stability of the financial system, the Eurozone may wish to consider measures that facilitate convergence across members’ housing markets.

本研究旨在确定欧洲经济体样本中的房价是否趋同，包括欧元区成员和非成员。总体而言，文献没有发现整个欧洲房价趋同的证​​据。使用 2004 年第二季度至 2016 年第三季度期间来自 12 个国家的数据，我们针对发散（或俱乐部收敛）的替代方案测试收敛的零假设，并应用贝叶斯动态面板模型来确定房价动态和驱动因素。结果表明整个欧洲存在五个房地产市场俱乐部，但没有证据表明存在欧元区俱乐部。此外，我们发现实际房价的主要决定因素主要是财政因素和失业。鉴于住房市场对经济和金融体系稳定的重要性，