Fisheries play critical roles in food supply and income for human communities worldwide. Unfortunately, the fishery distribution have been changing due to anthropogenic climate change (CC). In this sense, this study analyses were directed to predict the suitability and distribution of red octopus (Octopus maya), an endemic and commercially important species of the Yucatan Peninsula (YP) in Mexico under different CC scenarios. For this purpose, a correlative (CNM) and mechanistic (MNM) niche models based on temperature and salinity and on metabolic scope, respectively, were projected to different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 6, 8.5) for the 2040–2050 and 2090–2100 periods. The CNM results suggest that red octopus suitability and potential distribution (PD) could be slightly reduced for the RCP 2.6 scenario. Whereas, RCP 4.5 shows higher suitabilities at the northern region of the YP, which is characterized by a seasonal upwelling which could act as climate refugia. In contrast, a significant suitability and PD reduction occurs during 2090–2100 for the RCP 6 and 8.5 scenarios. On the other hand, MNM indicates the red octopus could retain most of its PD except for the most catastrophic scenario, finding climate refugia north of the YP and deeper waters. Overall, the CNM is more pessimistic than MNM regarding forecasts. Differences between outputs could be based on the MNM using a single variable as proxy to a multivariate niche and the statistical weight of surface environmental variables in the CNM compared to MNM, which considered only bottom temperature data. In addition, coastal data may be overrepresented, which may bias the CNM. Regardless of the differences in the results, both approaches usually predicted suitability reduction in all RCP scenarios showing that temperatures of ~30 °C are detrimental for the red octopus. Assuming that a relationship between abundance and the niche suitability exists, landings in the region will be reduced and less accessible for small-scale fisheries, which is especially important since Mexican regulations assume this species will benefit from CC.

渔业在全球人类社区的粮食供应和收入方面发挥着关键作用。不幸的是，由于人为气候变化（CC），渔业分布一直在变化。从这个意义上说，本研究分析旨在预测红章鱼（Octopus maya)，墨西哥尤卡坦半岛 (YP) 在不同 CC 情景下的地方性和商业上重要的物种。为此，分别基于温度和盐度以及代谢范围的相关 (CNM) 和机械 (MNM) 生态位模型被投影到不同的代表性浓度途径 (RCP) 情景 (2.6、4.5、6、8.5) 中。 2040-2050 年和 2090-2100 年期间。CNM 结果表明，对于 RCP 2.6 情景，红章鱼的适宜性和潜在分布 (PD) 可能会略有降低。然而，RCP 4.5 在 YP 北部地区表现出更高的适宜性，该地区的特点是季节性上升流，可作为气候避难所。相比之下，RCP 6 和 8.5 情景在 2090-2100 年期间发生了显着的适用性和 PD 减少。另一方面，MNM 表明红章鱼可以保留其大部分 PD，除了最灾难性的情况，在 YP 以北和更深的水域找到气候避难所。总体而言，CNM 在预测方面比 MNM 更为悲观. 输出之间的差异可能基于 MNM 使用单个变量作为多元生态位的代理，以及 CNM 中地表环境变量的统计权重与 MNM 相比，仅考虑底部温度数据。此外，沿海数据可能过多，这可能会使 CNM 产生偏差。无论结果有何差异，两种方法通常都预测所有 RCP 情景中的适宜性降低，表明约 30 ° C 的温度对红章鱼有害。假设存在丰度和生态位适宜性之间的关系，该地区的上岸量将减少，小型渔业难以获得，这一点尤其重要，因为墨西哥法规假设该物种将受益于 CC。