This paper develops the use of the branching point concept as a tool to support key decisions for reorienting systems for sustainability. In this approach, a pathway is seen as arising from accumulation of many specific decisions which create momentum in a particular direction and so reinforce the irreversibility of the pathway. Three complementary approaches to branching point analysis are identified within the transitions literature: 1) in pathway-scenarios for sustainability, 2) framing key decision-points in historical analysis, 3) to deconstruct the politics of transition pathways. A case study of UK heat decarbonisation is used to apply the branching point concept. This analysis highlights the tension where a policy approach, framed by a sector-wide target, interacts with distinct socio-technical responses and an alternative policy approach to decision-points is proposed. This paper demonstrates the potential to develop branching point analysis into a tool to support and help structure policy decisions for transition.

本文开发了使用分支点概念作为支持重新定位系统以实现可持续性的关键决策的工具。在这种方法中，路径被视为由许多特定决策的积累而产生，这些决策在特定方向上产生动力并因此加强了路径的不可逆性。在转型文献中确定了三种互补的分支点分析方法：1) 在可持续性路径情景中，2) 在历史分析中构建关键决策点，3) 解构转型路径的政治。英国热脱碳的案例研究用于应用分支点概念。该分析强调了一种紧张局势，即由全部门目标制定的政策方法，与不同的社会技术反应相互作用，并提出了决策点的替代政策方法。本文展示了将分支点分析发展为支持和帮助构建转型政策决策的工具的潜力。