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Tsunami evacuation risk assessment and probabilistic sensitivity analysis using augmented sample-based approach
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ( IF 5 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-12 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102462
Zhenqiang Wang 1 , Gaofeng Jia 1
Affiliation  

Tsunami evacuation is an effective way to save lives from the near-field earthquake-induced tsunami. To accurately assess tsunami evacuation risk, various uncertainties in evacuation need to be considered. For risk mitigation, it is also important to identify critical parameters (or risk factors) that contribute more to the evacuation risk to guide more effective tsunami evacuation. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis can be used for the latter. However, both risk assessment and sensitivity analysis require a large number of model evaluations and entail significant computational challenges, especially for the expensive evacuation model. This paper proposes an efficient augmented sample-based approach to address the above challenges. It only requires one set of samples/simulations (hence the high efficiency) to estimate the evacuation risk and calculate the sensitivity measures for all uncertain parameters. The approach is applied to estimate the tsunami evacuation risk for Seaside, Oregon, where a novel agent-based tsunami evacuation model is used to simulate the evacuation process more realistically. Various uncertainties in the evacuation process are explicitly quantified by properly selected probability distribution models. Besides the evacuation risk, critical risk factors are identified using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The results provide important insights on tsunami evacuation and critical information for guiding effective evacuation risk mitigation.



中文翻译:

使用基于样本的增强方法进行海啸疏散风险评估和概率敏感性分析

海啸疏散是从近场地震引发的海啸中拯救生命的有效方法。为了准确评估海啸疏散风险,需要考虑疏散过程中的各种不确定性。对于风险缓解,确定对疏散风险贡献更大的关键参数(或风险因素)以指导更有效的海啸疏散也很重要。概率敏感性分析可用于后者。然而,风险评估和敏感性分析都需要大量的模型评估,并带来重大的计算挑战,尤其是对于昂贵的疏散模型。本文提出了一种有效的基于增强样本的方法来解决上述挑战。它只需要一组样本/模拟(因此效率高)来估计疏散风险并计算所有不确定参数的敏感性度量。该方法用于估计俄勒冈州 Seaside 的海啸疏散风险,其中使用基于代理的新型海啸疏散模型更真实地模拟疏散过程。Various uncertainties in the evacuation process are explicitly quantified by properly selected probability distribution models. 除了疏散风险外,还使用概率敏感性分析确定了关键风险因素。结果提供了关于海啸疏散的重要见解和指导有效疏散风险缓解的关键信息。该方法用于估计俄勒冈州 Seaside 的海啸疏散风险,其中使用基于代理的新型海啸疏散模型更真实地模拟疏散过程。Various uncertainties in the evacuation process are explicitly quantified by properly selected probability distribution models. 除了疏散风险外,还使用概率敏感性分析确定了关键风险因素。结果提供了关于海啸疏散的重要见解和指导有效疏散风险缓解的关键信息。该方法用于估计俄勒冈州 Seaside 的海啸疏散风险,其中使用基于代理的新型海啸疏散模型更真实地模拟疏散过程。Various uncertainties in the evacuation process are explicitly quantified by properly selected probability distribution models. 除了疏散风险外,还使用概率敏感性分析确定了关键风险因素。结果提供了关于海啸疏散的重要见解和指导有效疏散风险缓解的关键信息。除了疏散风险外,还使用概率敏感性分析确定了关键风险因素。结果提供了关于海啸疏散的重要见解和指导有效疏散风险缓解的关键信息。除了疏散风险外,还使用概率敏感性分析确定了关键风险因素。结果提供了关于海啸疏散的重要见解和指导有效疏散风险缓解的关键信息。

更新日期:2021-07-16
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