How effective are states at assessing and predicting the nuclear intentions of foreign countries? Drawing on close to 200 US assessments of foreign countries’ proliferation intentions between 1957 and 1966, this research note finds that close to 80 percent of testable US assessments were correct and that they shifted from highly inaccurate in the late 1950s to highly accurate in the 1960s. Based on quantitative and qualitative analysis, I conclude that learning from early failures led the intelligence community to achieve higher accuracy.

中文翻译：

---

学习预测扩散

各国在评估和预测外国核意图方面的效率如何？根据 1957 年至 1966 年间美国对外国扩散意图的近 200 项评估，本研究报告发现，近 80% 的可测试美国评估是正确的，并且它们从 1950 年代后期的高度不准确转变为 1960 年代的高度准确. 基于定量和定性分析，我得出结论，从早期失败中吸取教训，使情报界获得了更高的准确性。