As the threat of COVID-19 increases, many countries have carried out various non-pharmaceutical interventions. Although many studies have evaluated the impact of these interventions, there is a lack of mapping between model parameters and actual geographic areas. In this study, a non-pharmaceutical intervention model of COVID-19 based on a discrete grid is proposed from the perspective of geography. This model can provide more direct and effective information for the formulation of prevention and control policies. First, a multi-level grid was introduced to divide the geographical space, and the properties of the grid boundary were used to describe the quarantine status and intensity in these different spaces; this was also combined with the model of hospital isolation and self-protection. Then, a process for the spatiotemporal evolution of the early COVID-19 spread is proposed that integrated the characteristics of residents’ daily activities. Finally, the effect of the interventions was quantitatively analyzed by the dynamic transmission model of COVID-19. The results showed that quarantining is the most effective intervention, especially for infectious diseases with a high infectivity. The introduction of a quarantine could effectively reduce the number of infected humans, advance the peak of the maximum infected number of people, and shorten the duration of the pandemic. However, quarantines only function properly when employed at sufficient intensity; hospital isolation and self-protection measures can effectively slow the spread of COVID-19, thus providing more time for the relevant departments to prepare, but an outbreak will occur again when the hospital reaches full capacity. Moreover, medical resources should be concentrated in places where there is the most urgent need under a strict quarantine measure.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19防控非药物干预分析与评价：以武汉市为例

随着 COVID-19 威胁的增加，许多国家已经开展了各种非药物干预措施。尽管许多研究评估了这些干预措施的影响，但缺乏模型参数与实际地理区域之间的映射。本研究从地理角度提出了一种基于离散网格的 COVID-19 非药物干预模型。该模型可以为防控政策的制定提供更直接有效的信息。首先，引入多级网格划分地理空间，利用网格边界的属性来描述不同空间的隔离状态和强度；这也与医院隔离和自我保护的模式相结合。然后，提出了一个整合居民日常活动特征的早期 COVID-19 传播的时空演化过程。最后，通过 COVID-19 的动态传播模型定量分析了干预措施的效果。结果表明，隔离是最有效的干预措施，尤其是对于传染性高的传染病。引入隔离措施可以有效减少感染人数，提前达到最大感染人数的峰值，缩短大流行的持续时间。但是，隔离只有在强度足够大的情况下才能正常发挥作用；医院隔离和自我保护措施可以有效减缓COVID-19的传播，从而为相关部门提供更多的准备时间，但当医院满负荷运转时，又会再次爆发。此外，在严格的隔离措施下，医疗资源应集中在最急需的地方。