Forest Policy and Economics ( IF 4 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-12 , DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102536 Sven Wunder 1, 2, 3 , David Kaimowitz 4 , Stig Jensen 5 , Sarah Feder 1
Much uncertainty persists about how the coronavirus (COVID-19) and its derived crisis effects will impact both the economy and forests. Here we conceptualize a recursive model where an initial COVID-19 supply-side shock hits first the Global North that, mediated by country-specific epidemic management strategies and other (fiscal, monetary, trade) policy responses feeds through to financial markets and the real economy. Analytically we distinguish two stylized scenarios: an optimistic V-shaped recovery where effective policy responses render most economic damages transitory, versus a pessimistic pathway of economic depression, where short-run pandemic impacts are dwarfed by the subsequent economic breakdown. Economic impacts are transitioned from the global North to the South through trade, tourism, remittances and investment/capital flows. As for impacts on tropical forests, we compare the effects of past economic crises to early indicators for incipient trends. We find national income and commodity price effects to be torn between three forces: a contractive-inflationary supply-side shock, deflationary pandemic demand-side effects, and expansive-inflationary monetary and fiscal policy responses. We discuss how global forest outcomes will depend on how these macroeconomic battles are resolved, but also on geographical differences in deforestation dynamics. Reviewing recent fire and deforestation alerts data, as well as annual tree-cover loss data, we find that deforestation-curbing and -enhancing factors so far just about neutralized each other. Yet, country impacts vary greatly. Changing macroeconomic scenarios, such as fading out of huge economic stimulus packages, could change the picture significantly, in line with what our model predicts.
中文翻译:
冠状病毒、宏观经济和森林:可能产生什么影响?
关于冠状病毒 (COVID-19) 及其衍生的危机影响将如何影响经济和森林,仍然存在很多不确定性。在这里,我们概念化了一个递归模型,在该模型中,最初的 COVID-19 供应方冲击首先袭击全球北方,在特定国家的流行病管理战略和其他(财政、货币、贸易)政策反应的调解下,影响到金融市场和实际经济。在分析上,我们区分了两种程式化的情景:一种是乐观的 V 型复苏,其中有效的政策反应使大多数经济损失是暂时的,另一种是悲观的经济萧条路径,其中短期的流行病影响与随后的经济崩溃相形见绌。经济影响通过贸易、旅游、汇款和投资/资本流动从全球北方转移到南方。至于对热带森林的影响,我们将过去经济危机的影响与初期趋势的早期指标进行了比较。我们发现国民收入和大宗商品价格的影响在三种力量之间被撕裂:收缩性通胀供应方冲击、通货紧缩性流行病需求方影响以及扩张性通胀货币和财政政策反应。我们讨论了全球森林成果将如何取决于这些宏观经济斗争的解决方式,以及森林砍伐动态的地理差异。回顾最近的火灾和森林砍伐警报数据,以及年度树木覆盖损失数据,我们发现到目前为止,抑制森林砍伐和加强森林砍伐的因素几乎相互抵消了。然而,各国的影响差异很大。不断变化的宏观经济情景,例如退出庞大的经济刺激计划,