Assessing the avalanche danger level requires snow stratigraphy and instability data. As such data are usually sparse, we investigated whether distributed snow cover modeling can be used to provide information on spatial instability patterns relevant for regional avalanche forecasting. Using Alpine3D, we performed spatially distributed simulations to evaluate snow instability for the winter season 2016–17 in the region of Davos, Switzerland. Meteorological data from automatic weather stations were interpolated to 100 m horizontal resolution and precipitation was scaled with snow depth measurements from airborne laser scanning. Modeled snow instability metrics assessed for two different weak layers suggested that the weak layer closer to the snow surface was more variable. Initially, it was less stable than the weak layer closer to the ground, yet it stabilized faster as the winter progressed. In spring, the simulated snowpack on south-facing slopes stabilized faster than on north-facing slopes, in line with the regional avalanche forecast. In the winter months January to March 2017, simulated instability metrics did not suggest that the snowpack on south-facing slopes was more stable, as reported in the regional avalanche forecast. Although a validation with field data is lacking, these model results still show the potential and challenges of distributed modeling for supporting operational avalanche forecasting.

中文翻译：

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使用 Alpine3D 在区域尺度上对空间分布的雪不稳定性进行建模

评估雪崩危险程度需要雪地层学和不稳定数据。由于此类数据通常很少，我们研究了分布式积雪模型是否可用于提供与区域雪崩预报相关的空间不稳定性模式信息。我们使用 Alpine3D 进行了空间分布模拟，以评估瑞士达沃斯地区 2016-17 年冬季的降雪不稳定性。来自自动气象站的气象数据被插值到 100 m 水平分辨率，降水量通过机载激光扫描的积雪深度测量值进行缩放。为两个不同的薄弱层评估的模拟雪不稳定性指标表明，靠近雪面的薄弱层变化更大。最初，它不如靠近地面的弱层稳定，但随着冬季的进行，它会更快地稳定下来。在春季，模拟的朝南斜坡上的积雪比朝北斜坡上的稳定速度更快，与区域雪崩预测一致。在 2017 年 1 月至 2017 年 3 月的冬季，模拟的不稳定指标并未表明朝南斜坡上的积雪更加稳定，正如区域雪崩预报中所报告的那样。尽管缺乏现场数据的验证，但这些模型结果仍然显示了分布式建模在支持雪崩预测方面的潜力和挑战。正如区域雪崩预报中所报告的那样，模拟的不稳定性指标并未表明朝南斜坡上的积雪更加稳定。尽管缺乏现场数据的验证，但这些模型结果仍然显示了分布式建模在支持雪崩预测方面的潜力和挑战。正如区域雪崩预报中所报告的那样，模拟的不稳定性指标并未表明朝南斜坡上的积雪更加稳定。尽管缺乏现场数据的验证，但这些模型结果仍然显示了分布式建模在支持雪崩预测方面的潜力和挑战。