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Modelling the Vadret da Tschierva, Switzerland: calibration with the historical length record and future response to climate change
Journal of Glaciology ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-12 , DOI: 10.1017/jog.2021.82
Johannes Oerlemans 1 , Felix Keller 2
Affiliation  

The Vadret da Tschierva (Vd Tschierva) is a 4 km long glacier in the Swiss Alps spanning an altitude range of 2400–4049 m a.s.l. Length observations since 1855 show steady retreat interrupted by a period of advance from 1965 until 1985. The total retreat is ~2200 m (period 1855–2018). We have studied the Vd Tschierva with a flowline model, combined with ‘buckets’ that represent steep hanging glaciers and ice-free rock faces delivering mass to the main stream. The model is calibrated by a control method, in which an ELA history is objectively determined by finding the best match between observed and simulated glacier length. There is a modest correlation between the reconstructed ELA and an ELA record based on meteorological observations at Segl-Maria (only 8 km away from the glacier). It is difficult to reproduce the observed length record when the glacier model is driven by climate model output (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5). We have calculated the future evolution of the Vd Tschierva for different rates of ELA rise. For a constant rise of 4 ${\rm m\;}{\rm a}^{ \hbox{-} 1}$, we predict that the glacier length will change from the current 3.2 km to ~1.7 km in the year 2100.

中文翻译:

模拟瑞士 Vadret da Tschierva:使用历史长度记录和未来对气候变化的响应进行校准

Vadret da Tschierva (Vd Tschierva) 是瑞士阿尔卑斯山的一座 4 公里长的冰川,海拔范围为 2400-4049 m asl。自 1855 年以来的长度观测显示,从 1965 年到 1985 年,一段时期的前进中断了稳定的后退。总后退是~2200 m(1855-2018 年期间)。我们使用流线模型研究了 Vd Tschierva,结合代表陡峭悬垂冰川和无冰岩面的“桶”向主流输送质量。该模型通过控制方法进行校准,其中通过找到观测和模拟冰川长度之间的最佳匹配来客观地确定 ELA 历史。重建的 ELA 与基于 Segl-Maria(距冰川仅 8 公里)的气象观测的 ELA 记录之间存在适度的相关性。当冰川模型由气候模型输出驱动时,很难重现观测到的长度记录(耦合模型比对项目 5)。我们已经计算了不同 ELA 上升率下 Vd Tschierva 的未来演变。持续上升 4${\rm m\;}{\rm a}^{ \hbox{-} 1}$,我们预测冰川长度将从目前的 3.2 公里变为 2100 年的约 1.7 公里。
更新日期:2021-07-12
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