We examine potential early markets for fusion energy and their projected cost targets, based on analysis and synthesis of many relevant, recent studies and reports. Seeking to provide guidance to ambitious fusion developers aspiring to enable commercial deployment before 2040, we examine cost requirements for fusion-generated electricity, process heat, and hydrogen production based on today’s market prices but with various adjustments relating to possible scenarios in 2035, such as “business-as-usual,” high renewables penetration, and carbon pricing up to 100 $/\(\hbox {tCO}_2\). Key findings are that fusion developers should consider focusing initially on high-priced global electricity markets and consider including integrated thermal storage, depending on techno-economic factors, in order to maximize revenue and compete in markets with high renewables penetration. Process heat and hydrogen production will be tough early markets for fusion, but may open up to fusion as markets evolve and if fusion’s levelized cost of electricity falls below 50 $/\(\hbox {MWh}_{\mathrm {e}}\). Finally, we discuss potential ways for a fusion plant to increase revenue via cogeneration (e.g., desalination, direct air capture, or district heating) and to lower capital costs (e.g., by minimizing construction times and interest or by retrofitting coal plants).

我们基于对许多相关的近期研究和报告的分析和综合，研究了聚变能的潜在早期市场及其预计的成本目标。为了向有志于在 2040 年之前实现商业部署的雄心勃勃的聚变开发商提供指导，我们根据当今的市场价格检查聚变发电、工艺热和氢气生产的成本要求，但对 2035 年可能出现的情况进行了各种调整，例如“一切照旧”，可再生能源渗透率高，碳定价高达 100 美元/ \(\hbox {tCO}_2\). 主要发现是，聚变开发商应首先考虑将重点放在高价全球电力市场，并根据技术经济因素考虑包括集成热存储，以最大限度地提高收入并在可再生能源渗透率高的市场中竞争。过程热和氢气生产将是聚变的艰难早期市场，但随着市场的发展，如果聚变的平均电力成本低于 50 美元/ \(\hbox {MWh}_{\mathrm {e}}\ )。最后，我们讨论了聚变厂通过热电联产（例如，海水淡化、直接空气捕获或区域供热）增加收入和降低资本成本（例如，通过最大限度地减少建设时间和利息或改造燃煤电厂）的潜在方法。