Recent decades have witnessed increased public awareness of refrigerants, due to their significant global warming potential (GWP) and ozone depletion potential (ODP). Using the life cycle assessment (LCA) method, this study estimates and predicts the potential GWP and ODP of refrigerants over the entire life cycle of household air conditioners during 1998–2035 in Macau. The results show that the total environmental impacts of refrigerants were 2.19 ± 0.63 t CFC-11 eq. and 111.62 ± 17.44 Kt CO₂ eq. in 2018, respectively. If uncontrolled, cumulative emissions of ODP and GWP will rise to approximately 15.54 ± 2.63 t CFC-11 eq. and 1.31 ± 0.21 Mt. CO₂ eq. between 2019 and 2035. Specifically, ODP effects experienced a historical peak of 3.24 ± 0.54 t CFC-11 eq. in 2013, and GWP effects peaked at 128.05 ± 20.83 Kt CO₂ eq. in 2014. Furthermore, the GWP contribution in the use stage decreased from 88% in 2002 to 11% in 2028, while the end-of-life stage will gradually become the dominant stage of GWP effects. Under the most optimistic scenario (S4), the reduction rates of ODP and GWP will be 44% ± 12% and 38% ± 14%, respectively, compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario in 2035, and will realize zero ODP emissions by 2032 (2 years earlier than the BAU). In the future, the management and disposal of large-scale electronic waste need to be further improved for the effective control of refrigerants in Macau.

近几十年来，由于制冷剂具有显着的全球变暖潜能值 (GWP) 和臭氧消耗潜能值 (ODP)，公众对制冷剂的认识不断提高。本研究使用生命周期评估 (LCA) 方法，估计和预测了 1998-2035 年澳门家用空调整个生命周期内制冷剂的潜在 GWP 和 ODP。结果表明，制冷剂对环境的总影响为 2.19 ± 0.63 t CFC-11 eq。和 111.62 ± 17.44 Kt CO ₂当量。分别在 2018 年。如果不加控制，ODP 和 GWP 的累积排放量将上升到大约 15.54 ± 2.63 t CFC-11 eq。和 1.31 ± 0.21 吨。CO ₂等式 2019 年至 2035 年之间。具体而言，ODP 影响经历了 3.24 ± 0.54 吨 CFC-11 当量的历史峰值。2013 年，GWP 效应达到峰值，为 128.05 ± 20.83 Kt CO ₂ eq。2014 年。此外，使用阶段的 GWP 贡献从 2002 年的 88% 下降到 2028 年的 11%，而生命末期阶段将逐渐成为 GWP 效应的主导阶段。在最乐观情景（S4）下，2035 年 ODP 和 GWP 的削减率将分别比一切照常（BAU）情景下降 44%±12%和 38%±14%，并将实现到 2032 年实现零 ODP 排放（比 BAU 早 2 年）。未来，澳门需要进一步完善大型电子废物的管理和处置，以有效控制制冷剂。