Peru holds an important portion of the South American rainforest. An average deforestation rate of 145,000 ha a year makes it the largest source of GHG emissions. Based on the drivers of deforestation, this paper proposes a deep decarbonization pathway (DDP) through the year 2050 with the purpose of taking the country closer to achieving the net-zero emissions goal. The impacts of the pathway are estimated using POLYSYS-Peru, an equilibrium displacement model for the integrated analysis of land-use changes and agriculture. The results indicate that the proposed DDP pathway, by preventing the deforestation of 4 million hectares of primary forests, would reduce GHG emissions by an accumulated 1778 Mt CO₂ eq. compared to the business as usual scenario, and 497 Mt CO₂ eq. more than the Nationally Determined Contributions.

秘鲁拥有南美雨林的重要部分。每年平均 145,000 公顷的森林砍伐率使其成为温室气体排放的最大来源。基于森林砍伐的驱动因素，本文提出了到 2050 年的深度脱碳路径 (DDP)，目的是使该国更接近实现净零排放目标。该路径的影响使用 POLYSYS-Peru 进行评估，POLYSYS-Peru 是一种用于土地利用变化和农业综合分析的平衡位移模型。结果表明，拟议的 DDP 途径通过防止 400 万公顷原始森林的砍伐，将减少 1778 Mt CO ₂当量的温室气体排放。与常规情景相比，497 Mt CO ₂等式 超过国家自主贡献。