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Finance, oil rent and premature deindustrialisation in Nigeria
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics ( IF 5.059 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-10 , DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2021.06.006
Richard E. Itaman 1, 2 , Oluwafemi E. Awopegba 3
Affiliation  

The literature on deindustrialisation often neglects the role of finance in the decline in manufacturing, despite the increasing shift towards financial speculation relative to real investments. This paper tries to bridge this gap in the literature by examining the role of finance in Nigeria's premature deindustrialisation, particularly banks’ drive for short-term profits and their choice to lend to the oil and gas sector over manufacturing. We show that deindustrialisation in Nigeria can be traced back to the effect of the neoliberal policies of the 1980s and the take-off of financial liberalisation, corresponding to the decline in manufacturing value added. In the same period, employment share in manufacturing declined, however, at a distinctly lower rate than manufacturing value added. Therefore, higher productivity of labour is considered a less prominent factor for premature deindustrialisation in Nigeria, not least due to the low level of technological upgrading. We argue that the disproportionate flow of bank credit to the oil and gas and services sectors relative to manufacturing is further incentivised by the government's failed subsidy to the oil industry, which guarantees rent extraction for private interests. Using the Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) estimation for the period 1981-2018, we find evidence that suggests a significant negative impact of domestic credit by banks on manufacturing value added in Nigeria. The disproportionate flow of domestic bank credit to the oil and gas and services sectors in Nigeria also indicates a significant negative impact on the country's manufacturing. On the other hand, net domestic credit by financial institutions, which includes financial flows by domestic development banks, has a significant positive impact on manufacturing.



中文翻译:

尼日利亚的金融、石油租金和过早去工业化

尽管相对于实际投资越来越多地转向金融投机,但关于去工业化的文献往往忽略了金融在制造业衰退中的作用。本文试图通过研究金融在尼日利亚过早去工业化中的作用来弥合文献中的这一差距,特别是银行对短期利润的推动以及他们选择向石油和天然气部门提供贷款而不是制造业。我们表明,尼日利亚的去工业化可以追溯到 1980 年代新自由主义政策的影响和金融自由化的起飞,与制造业增加值的下降相对应。然而,同期制造业就业份额下降的速度明显低于制造业增加值。所以,较高的劳动生产率被认为是尼日利亚过早去工业化的一个不太突出的因素,尤其是由于技术升级水平低。我们认为,相对于制造业,银行信贷不成比例地流向石油和天然气和服务业,进一步刺激了政府对石油行业的补贴失败,这保证了私人利益的租金提取。使用 1981-2018 年期间的自回归分布滞后 (ARDL) 估计,我们发现证据表明银行的国内信贷对尼日利亚的制造业增加值产生了显着的负面影响。国内银行信贷不成比例地流向尼日利亚的石油、天然气和服务业,也表明对该国制造业产生了重大负面影响。另一方面,

更新日期:2021-09-09
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