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Emission Pathways Towards a Low-Carbon Energy System for Europe: A Model-Based Analysis of Decarbonization Scenarios
The Energy Journal ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-01 , DOI: 10.5547/01956574.42.5.khai
Karlo Hainsch , Thorsten Burandt , Konstantin Löffler , Claudia Kemfert , Pao-Yu Oei , Christian von Hirschhausen

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to showcase different decarbonization pathways for Europe with varying Carbon dioxide (CO2) constraints until 2050. The Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) framework, a linear mathematical optimization model, is used to compute low-carbon scenarios for 17 European countries or regions. The sectors power, low- and high- temperature heating, and passenger and freight transportation are included, with the model endogenously constructing capacities in each period. Emission constraints differ between different scenarios and are either optimized endogenously by the model, or distributed on a per-capita basis, GDP-dependent, or based on current emissions. The results show a rapid phase-in of renewable energies, if a carbon budget in line with established international climate targets is chosen. It can be shown that the achievement of the 2° target can be met with low additional costs compared to the business as usual case, while reducing total emissions by more than 30%.

中文翻译:

通往欧洲低碳能源系统的排放路径:基于模型的脱碳情景分析

摘要:本文的目的是展示欧洲在 2050 年之前具有不同二氧化碳 (CO2) 约束的不同脱碳途径。全球能源系统模型 (GENeSYS-MOD) 框架是一种线性数学优化模型,用于计算低17 个欧洲国家或地区的碳情景。包括电力、低温和高温供暖、客货运输等行业,模型内生各时期建设能力。排放约束因不同情景而异,要么由模型内生优化,要么按人均分配、依赖 GDP 或基于当前排放。结果表明,如果选择符合既定国际气候目标的碳预算,可再生能源的快速发展。
更新日期:2021-08-19
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