Abstract: We investigate short-term futures oil pricing over the 2003–2019 time-period in order to analyze the bubble-like dynamics, which characterizes the 2007–2009 years according to a large body of recent literature. Our research, based on the LPPL methodology and a flexible three-agent model (hedgers, fundamentalist speculators and chartists), confirms the presence of a bubble price pattern, which we attribute to the strong destabilizing behavior of speculators. In our view, this can be related to incorrect interpretation of market signals (or to the inability of trading against the market), especially by fundamentalists, combined with imitation across different categories of agents. This sets off positive feedback reactions along with self-reinforced herding of the kind best detected by the LPPL methodology.

中文翻译：

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驾驭石油泡沫：期货石油定价的非线性异构代理动态模型

摘要：我们调查了 2003-2019 年期间的短期期货石油定价，以分析泡沫状的动态，根据大量近期文献，这是 2007-2009 年的特征。我们的研究基于 LPPL 方法和灵活的三代理模型（对冲者、基本面投机者和图表分析师），证实了泡沫价格模式的存在，我们将其归因于投机者强烈的破坏稳定的行为。在我们看来，这可能与对市场信号的错误解释（或无法与市场进行交易）有关，尤其是原教旨主义者，以及不同类别代理的模仿。这引发了正反馈反应以及 LPPL 方法最好检测到的自我强化放牧。