This paper presents a method for contributing to risk assessment of cultural heritage exposed to hydrometeorological extreme events linked to climate change. The methodology adopted involves the development of hazard maps at territorial level, based on outputs from climate models, and the vulnerability assessment at building scale, underlying on physical and managerial criticalities of built heritage. Results are discussed for two pilot sites highly susceptible to flooding impacting large areas: Prague - Troja (CZ) and Krems - Stein (AT). Outcomes include climate projections of changes of the extreme precipitation index R5xday with spatial resolution of ∼12 km for the near and far future (2021–2050; 2071–2100), under two different scenarios (stabilizing and pessimistic). A general increase of Rx5day in the investigated areas in the far future under the pessimistic scenario is foreseen, highlighting a high likelihood of flooding risk. Furthermore, it is determined that the buildings selected in the pilot areas present a high degree of vulnerability, mainly due to a lack of a maintenance plan and a significant susceptibility of the structures to water impact. Therefore preparedness turns out to be a crucial step in the management of the sites for enhancing their resilience to calamitous events.

本文提出了一种有助于对暴露于与气候变化相关的水文气象极端事件的文化遗产进行风险评估的方法。所采用的方法涉及根据气候模型的输出在领土层面绘制灾害地图，以及建筑规模的脆弱性评估，以建筑遗产的物理和管理重要性为基础。讨论了两个极易受洪水影响大面积地区的试点地点的结果：布拉格 - 特罗哈 (CZ) 和克雷姆斯 - 斯坦 (AT)。结果包括在两种不同情景（稳定和悲观）下对近期和远未来（2021-2050 年；2071-2100 年）空间分辨率约为 12 公里的极端降水指数 R5xday 变化的气候预测。预计在悲观情景下，在遥远的未来，调查区域的 Rx5day 普遍增加，突出表明洪水风险的可能性很高。此外，确定在试点地区选择的建筑物存在高度脆弱性，主要是由于缺乏维护计划和结构对水影响的显着敏感性。因此，准备工作被证明是站点管理的关键步骤，以增强其对灾​​难性事件的抵御能力。