The prediction of extreme ship responses continues to be an important and longstanding topic in ship hydrodynamics with a significant focus on developing probabilistic methods based on simple descriptions of the hydrodynamics that mainly provide qualitative observations. While simple nonlinear hydrodynamic formulations provide insight into extreme events, their underlying assumptions can prevent accurate quantitative representations of the mechanisms that are ultimately responsible for the extreme responses.

Thus, research must strive to utilize increasingly more accurate hydrodynamic formulations to provide quantitative evaluations of extreme events. The present work aims to integrate extreme event probabilistic research based on the critical wave groups (CWG) method and fully nonlinear Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to achieve a high fidelity representation of extreme events. This aim is achieved by embedding deterministic wave groups into irregular wave trains with known responses to produce different states at the moment of wave group encounter. The new framework is demonstrated by predicting the probability of exceedence of roll with a 2-D midship section of the Office of Naval Research Tumblehome hull in Sea State 7. The framework showcases how CFD and CWG can together reduce the computational burden of predicting extreme ship responses.

极端船舶响应的预测仍然是船舶流体动力学中一个重要且长期存在的主题，重点是开发基于主要提供定性观察的流体动力学简单描述的概率方法。虽然简单的非线性流体动力学公式提供了对极端事件的洞察，但它们的基本假设可能会阻止对最终导致极端响应的机制的准确定量表示。

因此，研究必须努力利用越来越准确的流体动力学公式来提供对极端事件的定量评估。目前的工作旨在整合基于临界波群 (CWG) 方法和完全非线性计算流体动力学 (CFD) 的极端事件概率研究，以实现极端事件的高保真表示。这个目标是通过将确定性波群嵌入到具有已知响应的不规则波列中来实现的，以在波群相遇的时刻产生不同的状态。新框架通过使用海况 7 的海军研究办公室 Tumblehome 船体的 2-D 船中部部分预测横摇超出的概率来证明。该框架展示了 CFD 和 CWG 如何共同减少预测极端船舶的计算负担回应。