Air pollution from Amazon fires has adverse impacts on human health. The number of fires in the Amazon has increased in recent years, but whether this increase was driven by deforestation or climate has not been assessed. We analyzed relationships between fire, deforestation, and climate for the period 2003 to 2019 among selected states across the Brazilian Legal Amazon (BLA). A statistical model including deforestation, precipitation and temperature explained ∼80% of the variability in dry season fire count across states when totaled across the BLA, with positive relationships between fire count and deforestation. We estimate that the increase in deforestation since 2012 increased the dry season fire count in 2019 by 39%. Using a regional chemistry-climate model combined with exposure-response associations, we estimate this increase in fire resulted in 3,400 (95UI: 3,300–3,550) additional deaths in 2019 due to increased exposure to particulate air pollution. If deforestation in 2019 had increased to the maximum recorded during 2003–2019, the number of active fire counts would have increased by an additional factor of 2 resulting in 7,900 (95UI: 7,600–8,200) additional premature deaths. Our analysis demonstrates the strong benefits of reduced deforestation on air quality and public health across the Amazon.

中文翻译：

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2019 年亚马逊森林砍伐火灾对空气质量和公共健康造成巨大影响

亚马逊火灾造成的空气污染对人类健康产生不利影响。近年来，亚马逊地区的火灾数量有所增加，但这种增加是否是由森林砍伐或气候造成的尚未评估。我们分析了 2003 年至 2019 年期间巴西合法亚马逊 (BLA) 部分州的火灾、森林砍伐和气候之间的关系。包括森林砍伐、降水和温度在内的统计模型解释了整个 BLA 各州旱季火灾数量变异性的约 80%，火灾数量与森林砍伐之间存在正相关关系。我们估计，2012 年以来森林砍伐的增加使 2019 年旱季火灾数量增加了 39%。使用区域化学-气候模型与暴露-反应关联相结合，我们估计火灾的增加导致 2019 年因颗粒空气污染暴露增加而导致 3,400 人（95UI：3,300–3,550 人）额外死亡。如果 2019 年的森林砍伐量增加到 2003 年至 2019 年期间记录的最高水平，则发生火灾的数量将增加 2 倍，导致 7,900 人（95UI：7,600-8,200 人）过早死亡。我们的分析表明，减少森林砍伐对整个亚马逊地区的空气质量和公共健康有着巨大的好处。