This study revisits the association between bilateral relations and trade based on rare-event data from Integrated Data for Event Analysis (IDEA). Our results suggest that a country imports more from another if the two countries are friendlier. We further argue that states face two constraints when attempting to manipulate trade. First, they are constrained by domestic institutions such as elections and congress. Second, they are constrained by international institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). Our results show that the imports of authoritarian countries follow the flag of politics, but democratic countries’ imports are less likely to be affected by bilateral relations. Moreover, WTO membership can gradually restrict democratic states from intervening on imports but has little impact on authoritarian governments.

本研究基于事件分析综合数据 (IDEA) 的罕见事件数据，重新审视双边关系与贸易之间的关联。我们的结果表明，如果两个国家更友好，一个国家就会从另一个国家进口更多。我们进一步认为，国家在试图操纵贸易时面临两个限制。首先，它们受到选举和国会等国内机构的制约。其次，它们受到世界贸易组织（WTO）等国际机构的制约。我们的研究结果表明，威权国家的进口跟随政治旗帜，而民主国家的进口受双边关系影响的可能性较小。此外，加入世贸组织可以逐渐限制民主国家干预进口，但对专制政府影响不大。