What drove large declines in aggregate quantities during the Great Recession? I study this question by building a dynamic stochastic overlapping generations economy in which households hold both low-return liquid and high-return illiquid assets. In this economy, I explore how aggregate quantities and the distribution of households respond to a recession driven by an increased risk of a further economic downturn.

I find that an increase in disaster risk, and an empirically consistent fall in TFP, explain a significant fraction of the declines in aggregate consumption and investment observed during the Great Recession. Inequality is essential in driving these aggregate results. Comparing my model to an economy without illiquid assets, I show that household differences in both liquid and illiquid assets play a crucial role in amplifying the effects of an increase in disaster risk.

在大衰退期间，是什么导致总量大幅下降？我通过建立一个动态的随机重叠世代经济来研究这个问题，在这个经济中，家庭同时持有低回报的流动资产和高回报的非流动资产。在这个经济体中，我探讨了家庭的总量和分布如何应对因进一步经济衰退风险增加而导致的衰退。

我发现灾害风险的增加和 TFP 的经验一致下降解释了大萧条期间观察到的总消费和投资下降的很大一部分。不平等对于推动这些综合结果至关重要。将我的模型与没有非流动资产的经济体进行比较，我表明流动资产和非流动资产的家庭差异在放大灾害风险增加的影响方面起着至关重要的作用。