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Possibility of Stabilizing the Greenland Ice Sheet
Earth's Future ( IF 8.852 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-08 , DOI: 10.1029/2021ef002152
Xiuquan Wang 1, 2 , Adam Fenech 1, 2 , Aitazaz A Farooque 1, 2, 3
Affiliation  

Recent acceleration in the retreat of the Greenland ice sheet under a warming climate has caused unprecedented challenges and threats to coastal communities due to the rising sea level and increasing storm surges. This raises a critical question from a climate mitigation perspective: Would there still be a chance to stabilize the Greenland ice sheet if the carbon reduction goals of the Paris Agreement could be met? Here, we show that there is indeed a possibility for stabilizing the Greenland ice sheet with the low-emission scenario of RCP2.6. In particular, RCP2.6 would potentially limit the warming in Greenland below 1°C within next 30 years and constrain its loss of ice sheet coverage below 10%. After 2050, the annual mean temperature in Greenland is likely to be stabilized and no further loss is expected to its ice sheet. However, the effective window for this chance will be closing after 2020. If no effective carbon reduction policies are being taken now, we are very likely to enter a continuous warming pathway and lose the chance of stabilizing the Greenland ice sheet.

中文翻译:

稳定格陵兰冰盖的可能性

由于海平面上升和风暴潮增加,格陵兰冰盖在气候变暖的情况下最近加速退缩,给沿海社区带来了前所未有的挑战和威胁。这从减缓气候变化的角度提出了一个关键问题:如果《巴黎协定》的碳减排目标能够实现,格陵兰冰盖是否还有机会稳定下来?在这里,我们表明确实有可能通过 RCP2.6 的低排放情景来稳定格陵兰冰盖。特别是,RCP2.6 有可能在未来 30 年内将格陵兰岛的升温限制在 1°C 以下,并将其冰盖覆盖率的损失限制在 10% 以下。2050年后,格陵兰岛年平均气温有望趋于稳定,预计冰盖不会进一步流失。然而,
更新日期:2021-07-23
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