As the most severe drought over the Northeastern United States (NEUS) in the past century, the 1960s drought had pronounced socioeconomic impacts. Although it was followed by a persisting wet period, the conditions leading to the 1960s extreme drought could return in the future, along with its challenges to water management. To project the potential consequences of such a future drought, pseudo-global warming simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model are performed to simulate the dynamical conditions of the historical 1960s drought, but with modified thermodynamic conditions under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP585 scenario in the early (2021–2027), middle (2041–2047), and late (2091–2097) 21^st century. Our analysis focuses on essential hydroclimatic variables including temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, snowpack, and surface runoff. In contrast to the historical 1960s drought, similar dynamical conditions will generally produce more precipitation, increased soil moisture and evapotranspiration, and reduced snowpack. However, we also find that although wet months get much wetter, dry months may become drier, meaning that wetting trends are most significant in wet months but are essentially negligible for extremely dry months with negative monthly mean net precipitation. For these months, the trend toward wetting conditions provides little relief from the effects of extreme dry months. These conditions may even aggravate water shortages due to an increasingly rapid transition from wet to dry conditions. Other challenges emerge for residents and stakeholders in this region, including more extreme hot days, record-low snow pack, frozen ground degradation and subsequent decreases in surface runoff.

中文翻译：

---

对 1960 年代美国东北干旱的回顾性和前瞻性研究

作为美国东北部 (NEUS) 上世纪最严重的干旱，1960 年代的干旱对社会经济产生了显着影响。尽管随后是持续的潮湿期，但导致 1960 年代极端干旱的条件可能会在未来重现，同时也面临水资源管理挑战。为了预测此类未来干旱的潜在后果，使用天气研究和预测模型进行了伪全球变暖模拟，以模拟 1960 年代历史干旱的动态条件，但在共享社会经济路径 SSP585 情景下修改了热力学条件早期 (2021–2027)、中期 (2041–2047) 和晚期 (2091–2097) 21 ^st世纪。我们的分析侧重于基本的水文气候变量，包括温度、降水、蒸散量、土壤湿度、积雪和地表径流。与 1960 年代的历史干旱相比，类似的动态条件通常会产生更多的降水、土壤水分和蒸发量增加以及积雪减少。然而，我们还发现，虽然潮湿月份变得更加潮湿，但干燥月份可能会变得更加干燥，这意味着潮湿月份的湿润趋势最为显着，但对于每月平均净降水量为负的极端干燥月份基本上可以忽略不计。在这几个月里，湿润条件的趋势几乎没有缓解极端干燥月份的影响。由于从湿条件到干条件的转变越来越快，这些条件甚至可能加剧水资源短缺。