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Is the NPT unraveling? Evidence from text analysis of review conference statements
JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH ( IF 3.713 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 , DOI: 10.1177/0022343320960523 Miriam Barnum , James Lo 1
JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH ( IF 3.713 ) Pub Date : 2020-11-01 , DOI: 10.1177/0022343320960523 Miriam Barnum , James Lo 1
Affiliation
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) is a landmark international treaty that is widely regarded as a cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. However, pessimists point to a growing divergence of preferences between nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapons states as a precursor to the impending ‘unraveling of this vital piece of international law’. In this article, we test for evidence of preference divergence using statements from NPT review conferences, which are manifestos presenting each country’s position on the NPT. We measure preferences on the NPT using Wordfish, a method that is frequently used to estimate ideological preferences from election manifestos. Our measure estimates the latent positions of state actors along a ‘non-proliferation vs. disarmament’ dimension, and shows little evidence of growing preference divergence between the nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapons states. Thus, a significant premise underlying more pessimistic assessments of the NPT appears to be in doubt.
中文翻译:
NPT正在瓦解吗?来自审查会议声明的文本分析的证据
《不扩散核武器条约》(NPT)是具有里程碑意义的国际条约,被广泛认为是全球核不扩散体系的基石。然而,悲观主义者指出,核武器国家和无核武器国家之间的偏好日益分歧,这是即将“瓦解这一重要国际法部分”的先兆。在本文中,我们使用 NPT 审议大会的声明来测试偏好分歧的证据,这些声明是展示每个国家在 NPT 上的立场的宣言。我们使用 Wordfish 来衡量对 NPT 的偏好,这是一种经常用于从选举宣言中估计意识形态偏好的方法。我们的措施估计了国家行为者在“不扩散与裁军”维度上的潜在立场,并且几乎没有证据表明核武器国家和无核武器国家之间的偏好差异越来越大。因此,对《不扩散条约》进行更为悲观的评估的一个重要前提似乎存在疑问。
更新日期:2020-11-01
中文翻译:
NPT正在瓦解吗?来自审查会议声明的文本分析的证据
《不扩散核武器条约》(NPT)是具有里程碑意义的国际条约,被广泛认为是全球核不扩散体系的基石。然而,悲观主义者指出,核武器国家和无核武器国家之间的偏好日益分歧,这是即将“瓦解这一重要国际法部分”的先兆。在本文中,我们使用 NPT 审议大会的声明来测试偏好分歧的证据,这些声明是展示每个国家在 NPT 上的立场的宣言。我们使用 Wordfish 来衡量对 NPT 的偏好,这是一种经常用于从选举宣言中估计意识形态偏好的方法。我们的措施估计了国家行为者在“不扩散与裁军”维度上的潜在立场,并且几乎没有证据表明核武器国家和无核武器国家之间的偏好差异越来越大。因此,对《不扩散条约》进行更为悲观的评估的一个重要前提似乎存在疑问。