Purpose

The purpose of this study is to provide up-to-date evidence on the net effect of COVID-19 pandemic on international arrivals and occupancy rates in Greece. Analysis and forecasting point out the demand for 2020, and thus yielding more concrete evidence on the pure effect of the pandemic on the tourism industry.

Design/methodology/approach

Monthly observations from January 2000 to December 2020 were extracted from the Tourist Enterprises Association (SETE) for Athens, Thessaloniki, Kalamata, Rhodes, Mytilene, Santorini, Zante, Kefalonia and Crete. To model and forecast the volatility and the time trend effect of tourist arrivals individually, the study applies the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) (p,d,q) and the error, trend, seasonality (ETS) model.

Findings

Empirical results suggested that Athens, Thessaloniki and Crete were three destinations with the worst losses in international tourist arrivals. Specifically, Athens was expecting to have (without the existence of COVID-19) more than 330,000 tourist arrivals in December 2020 while instead only 73,000 international tourists visited Athens that period. Similarly, Thessaloniki and the island of Crete lost more than 150,000 international visitors during December 2020.

Originality/value

The author’s study adds to a growing number of studies regarding the impact of COVID-19 by incorporating monthly international arrival data and occupancy rate data for the whole 2020 reflecting differences in transportation or vacation choices. Also, the authors operationalized multiple time-series forecasting models (ETS and ARIMA) for reaching more concrete forecasts and estimates on the effect of COVID-19 on the Greek tourism sector.

中文翻译：

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旅行限制政策对旅游需求的净效应：来自希腊的证据

目的

本研究的目的是提供关于 COVID-19 大流行对希腊的国际到达率和入住率的净影响的最新证据。分析和预测指出了2020年的需求，从而为大流行对旅游业的纯粹影响提供了更具体的证据。

设计/方法/方法

从 2000 年 1 月到 2020 年 12 月的月度观察数据来自雅典、塞萨洛尼基、卡拉马塔、罗得岛、米蒂利尼、圣托里尼岛、赞特岛、凯法利尼亚岛和克里特岛的旅游企业协会 (SETE)。为了对游客人数的波动性和时间趋势效应分别进行建模和预测，本研究应用了自回归综合移动平均线 (ARIMA) ( p , d , q ) 和误差、趋势、季节性 (ETS) 模型。

发现

实证结果表明，雅典、塞萨洛尼基和克里特岛是国际游客人数损失最严重的三个目的地。具体而言，雅典预计（在没有 COVID-19 的情况下）到 2020 年 12 月将有超过 330,000 名游客到访，而在此期间只有 73,000 名国际游客访问了雅典。同样，塞萨洛尼基和克里特岛在 2020 年 12 月期间失去了超过 150,000 名国际游客。

原创性/价值

作者的研究通过纳入了整个 2020 年的月度国际到达数据和入住率数据，反映了交通或假期选择的差异，从而增加了越来越多关于 COVID-19 影响的研究。此外，作者还操作了多个时间序列预测模型（ETS 和 ARIMA），以便对 COVID-19 对希腊旅游业的影响进行更具体的预测和估计。