This paper uses administrative data to analyze a large and 8-year long employer payroll tax rate cut in Sweden for young workers aged 26 or less. We replicate previous results documenting that during the earlier years of the reform, it raised youth employment among the treated workers, driven by labor demand (as workers’ take-home wages did not respond). First, drawing on additional years of data, this paper then documents that the longer-run effects during the reform are twice as large as the medium-run effects. Second, we document novel labor-demand-driven “hysteresis” from this policy – i.e. persistent employment effects even after the subsidy no longer applies – along two dimensions. Over the lifecycle, employment effects persist even after workers age out of eligibility. Three years after the repeal, employment remains elevated at the maximal reform level in the formerly subsidized ages. These hysteresis effects more than double the direct employment effects of the reform. Discrimination against young workers in job posting fell during the reform and does not bounce back after repeal, potentially explaining our results.

本文使用行政数据来分析瑞典针对 26 岁或以下的年轻工人进行的为期 8 年的大规模雇主工资税减税。我们复制了之前的结果，证明在改革的早期，在劳动力需求的推动下（因为工人的实得工资没有反应），它在受治疗的工人中增加了青年就业。首先，本文利用额外的年份数据，证明改革期间的长期影响是中期影响的两倍。其次，我们从两个维度记录了该政策新的劳动力需求驱动的“滞后效应”——即，即使在补贴不再适用之后，持续的就业效应。在整个生命周期中，即使在工人年龄超出资格后，就业影响仍然存在。三年废除后，就业仍然保持在以前补贴时代的最大改革水平上。这些滞后效应是改革直接就业效应的两倍多。改革期间对年轻工人的歧视减少了，并且在废除后没有反弹，这可能解释了我们的结果。