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Public Debt and Economic Growth Nexus in the Euro Area: A Dynamic Panel ARDL Approach
Scientific Annals of Economics and Business Pub Date : 2020-01-01 , DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2020-0016 Themba Gilbert Chirwa 1 , Nicholas M. Odhiambo 2
Scientific Annals of Economics and Business Pub Date : 2020-01-01 , DOI: 10.47743/saeb-2020-0016 Themba Gilbert Chirwa 1 , Nicholas M. Odhiambo 2
Affiliation
This study investigates the relationship between public debt and economic growth using panel data from 10 European countries. Using a panel ARDL approach, the results show that public debt, government consumption, and the real exchange rate are negatively associated with economic growth in both the short and the long run. Furthermore, investment and the real interest rate were found to be positively associated with economic growth in both the short and the long run. Inflation and trade openness were found to have mixed results: both were negatively associated with economic growth in the long run while in the short run the relationship was positive and consistent across groups with a few exceptions. Second, the study results also showed that debt is nonlinear at the 70% threshold only in the long run, while in the short run the results were consistently negative and across groups. The study results have significant policy implications for the Stability and Growth Pact of the Euro area. It is recommended that member states should ensure fiscal sustainability by balancing their fiscal budgets to effectively reduce the accumulation of public debt as well as implementing structural reforms that will improve the efficiency of investment as well as macroeconomic stability.
中文翻译:
欧元区公共债务与经济增长的纽带:动态面板ARDL方法
本研究使用来自 10 个欧洲国家的面板数据调查公共债务与经济增长之间的关系。使用面板ARDL方法,结果表明公共债务、政府消费和实际汇率与短期和长期经济增长均呈负相关。此外,研究发现投资和实际利率与短期和长期经济增长呈正相关。发现通货膨胀和贸易开放的结果好坏参半:从长期来看,两者都与经济增长呈负相关,而在短期内,除了少数例外,两者之间的关系是积极的并且在各组之间保持一致。其次,研究结果还表明,债务仅在长期处于 70% 阈值时才是非线性的,而在短期内,结果始终是负面的,而且是跨组的。研究结果对欧元区稳定与增长公约具有重要的政策意义。建议成员国通过平衡财政预算来确保财政可持续性,以有效减少公共债务的积累,并实施结构性改革,以提高投资效率和宏观经济稳定性。
更新日期:2020-01-01
中文翻译:
欧元区公共债务与经济增长的纽带:动态面板ARDL方法
本研究使用来自 10 个欧洲国家的面板数据调查公共债务与经济增长之间的关系。使用面板ARDL方法,结果表明公共债务、政府消费和实际汇率与短期和长期经济增长均呈负相关。此外,研究发现投资和实际利率与短期和长期经济增长呈正相关。发现通货膨胀和贸易开放的结果好坏参半:从长期来看,两者都与经济增长呈负相关,而在短期内,除了少数例外,两者之间的关系是积极的并且在各组之间保持一致。其次,研究结果还表明,债务仅在长期处于 70% 阈值时才是非线性的,而在短期内,结果始终是负面的,而且是跨组的。研究结果对欧元区稳定与增长公约具有重要的政策意义。建议成员国通过平衡财政预算来确保财政可持续性,以有效减少公共债务的积累,并实施结构性改革,以提高投资效率和宏观经济稳定性。