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Predicting major hazard accidents by monitoring their barrier systems: A validation in retrospective
Process Safety and Environmental Protection ( IF 7.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-06 , DOI: 10.1016/j.psep.2021.07.006
Peter Schmitz 1, 2 , Genserik Reniers 1 , Paul Swuste 1
Affiliation  

OCI Nitrogen, one of Europe’s largest fertilizer producers, is investigating the extent to which it is possible to take targeted measures at an early stage and stop the development of major hazard accident processes. An innovative model has been developed and recently explained and elaborated in a number of publications. This current paper contains a validation of the model by looking at the BP Texas City incident in 2005. The bowtie metaphor is used to visually present the BP Texas City refinery incident, showing the barrier system from different perspectives. Not only is the barrier system looked at from its trustworthiness on the day of the incident but also from the perspective of the control room operator, and from a design to current standards of best practice. The risk reductions of these different views are calculated and compared to their original design. In addition, evidence and findings from the investigations have been categorized as flaws and allocated to nine organizational factors. These flaws may affect the barrier system’s quality or trustworthiness, or may act as ‘accident pathogens’ (see also Reason, 1990) creating latent, dangerous conditions. This paper sheds new light on the monitoring of accident processes and the barrier management to control them, and demonstrates that the BP Texas City refinery incident could have been foreseen using preventive barrier indicators and monitoring organizational factors.



中文翻译:

通过监控屏障系统预测重大危险事故:回顾性验证

OCI Nitrogen 是欧洲最大的化肥生产商之一,它正在调查在多大程度上可以及早采取有针对性的措施并阻止重大危害事故过程的发展。已经开发了一个创新模型,最近在一些出版物中对其进行了解释和阐述。本论文通过查看 2005 年 BP 德克萨斯城事件对模型进行了验证。领结比喻用于直观呈现 BP 德克萨斯城炼油厂事件,从不同角度显示屏障系统。不仅从事件发生当天的可信度来看屏障系统,而且从控制室操作员的角度来看,从设计到当前最佳实践标准。计算这些不同视图的风险降低并与其原始设计进行比较。此外,调查的证据和结果已被归类为缺陷,并分配给九个组织因素。这些缺陷可能会影响屏障系统的质量或可信度,或者可能充当“意外病原体”(另见 Reason,1990),造成潜在的危险状况。本文为事故过程的监控和控制它们的屏障管理提供了新的思路,并证明了使用预防屏障指标和监控组织因素可以预见 BP 德克萨斯城炼油厂事件。这些缺陷可能会影响屏障系统的质量或可信度,或者可能充当“意外病原体”(另见 Reason,1990),造成潜在的危险状况。本文为事故过程的监控和控制它们的屏障管理提供了新的思路,并证明了使用预防屏障指标和监控组织因素可以预见 BP 德克萨斯城炼油厂事件。这些缺陷可能会影响屏障系统的质量或可信度,或者可能充当“意外病原体”(另见 Reason,1990),造成潜在的危险状况。本文为事故过程的监控和控制它们的屏障管理提供了新的思路,并证明了使用预防屏障指标和监控组织因素可以预见 BP 德克萨斯城炼油厂事件。

更新日期:2021-07-12
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