We analyze the effect of the Bank of Israel monetary surprises on key variables in the Israeli economy, in the view of professional forecasters, by exploiting a unique daily dataset. We found that although the effect of monetary surprises on the exchange rate was stable over the whole sample, the pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation significantly declined after 2007. We found stability in the effect of the monetary surprises on real activity through the information channel introduced by Nakamura and Steinsson (2018). Finally, we found robust evidence that professional forecasters in Israel form their expectations rationally.

在专业预测人员​​看来，我们通过利用独特的每日数据集分析了以色列银行货币意外对以色列经济关键变量的影响。我们发现，尽管货币意外对汇率的影响在整个样本中是稳定的，但在 2007 年之后，汇率对通货膨胀的传递显着下降。我们发现货币意外对实际活动的影响是稳定的，通过Nakamura 和 Steinsson (2018) 介绍的信息频道。最后，我们发现了强有力的证据，表明以色列的专业预测人员​​会理性地形成他们的预期。