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Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C
Climatic Change ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-06 , DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03130-z
Sally Brown 1 , Katie Jenkins 2 , Rhosanna Jenkins 2 , Rachel Warren 2 , Robert J. Nicholls 2 , Philip Goodwin 3 , Ivan D. Haigh 3 , Daniel Lincke 4 , Athanasios T. Vafeidis 5 , Richard S. J. Tol 6, 7 , Svetlana Jevrejeva 8, 9 , Agustin Sanchez Arcilla 10
Affiliation  

Sea levels will rise, even with stringent climate change mitigation. Mitigation will slow the rate of rise. There is limited knowledge on how the costs of coastal protection vary with alternative global warming levels of 1.5 to 4.0 °C. Analysing six sea-level rise scenarios (0.74 to 1.09 m, 50th percentile) across these warming levels, and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, this paper quantifies the economic costs of flooding and protection due to sea-level rise using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework. Results are presented for World Bank income groups and five selected countries from the present to 2100. Annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are more influenced by socio-economic development than sea-level rise, indicating that there are opportunities to control risk with development choices. In contrast, annual sea dike investment costs are more dependent on the magnitude of sea-level rise. In terms of total costs with adaptation, upper middle, low middle and low income groups are projected to have higher relative costs as a proportion of GDP compared with high income groups. If low income countries protected now, flood costs could be reduced after 2050 and beyond. However, without further adaptation, their coasts will experience growing risks and costs leaving them increasingly reliant on emergency response measures. Without mitigation or adaptation, greater inequalities in damage costs between income groups could result. At country level, annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are projected to rapidly increase with approximately 0.2 m of sea-level rise, leaving limited time to plan and adapt.



中文翻译:

防止海平面上升 1.5 至 4.0 °C 的全球成本

即使采取严格的气候变化减缓措施,海平面也会上升。缓解措施将减缓上升速度。关于沿海保护成本如何随着 1.5 至 4.0 °C 的替代全球变暖水平而变化的知识有限。通过分析这些变暖水平的六个海平面上升情景(0.74 至 1.09 m,第 50 个百分点)和五个共享社会经济途径,本文使用动态交互式脆弱性评估量化了由于海平面上升引起的洪水和保护的经济成本( DIVA) 建模框架。从现在到 2100 年,世界银行收入组和五个选定国家的结果。没有额外适应的年度海洪损失成本受社会经济发展的影响比海平面上升的影响更大,表明有机会通过发展选择来控制风险。相比之下,每年海堤投资成本更依赖于海平面上升的幅度。在适应的总成本方面,与高收入群体相比,中上、中低和低收入群体的相对成本占 GDP 的比例预计更高。如果低收入国家现在得到保护,2050 年及以后的洪水成本可能会降低。然而,如果不进一步适应,他们的海岸将面临越来越大的风险和成本,使他们越来越依赖应急响应措施。如果没有缓解或适应,可能会导致收入群体之间损害成本的更大不平等。在国家层面,没有额外适应的年度海洪损失成本预计将迅速增加,大约为 0。

更新日期:2021-07-06
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