Bangladesh stands out as a climate change hot spot due to its unique geography, climate, high population density, and limited adaptation capacity. Mounting evidence suggests that the country is already suffering from the effects of climate change which may get worse without aggressive action. Here, we use an ensemble of high-resolution (10 km) regional climate model simulations to project near-term change in climate extremes, mainly heat waves and intense rainfall, for the period (2021–2050). Near-term climate projections represent a valuable input for designing sound adaptation policies. Our climate projections suggest that heatwaves will become more frequent and severe in Bangladesh under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). In particular, extremes of wet-bulb temperature (a temperature and humidity metric important in evaluating humid heat stress) in the western part of Bangladesh including Bogra, Ishurdi, and Jessore are likely to exceed the extreme danger threshold (according to U.S. National Weather Service criterion), which has rarely been observed in the current climate. The return periods of extreme heat waves are also significantly shortened across the country. In addition, country-averaged rainfall is projected to increase by about 6% during the summer months, with the largest increases (above 10%) in the eastern mountainous areas, such as Sylhet and Chittagong. Meanwhile, insignificant changes in extreme rainfall are simulated. Our results suggest that Bangladesh is particularly susceptible to climate extremes in the near future, in the form of extreme heat waves over the western part of the country.

孟加拉国因其独特的地理、气候、高人口密度和有限的适应能力而成为气候变化热点。越来越多的证据表明，该国已经受到气候变化的影响，如果不采取积极行动，气候变化可能会变得更糟。在这里，我们使用一组高分辨率（10 公里）区域气候模型模拟来预测该时期（2021-2050 年）气候极端事件（主要是热浪和强降雨）的近期变化。近期气候预测是设计合理适应政策的宝贵输入。我们的气候预测表明，在一切照旧的情景 (RCP8.5) 下，孟加拉国的热浪将变得更加频繁和严重。特别是，孟加拉国西部包括 Bogra、Ishurdi 和 Jessore 的极端湿球温度（在评估湿热压力方面很重要的温度和湿度指标）很可能超过极端危险阈值（根据美国国家气象局的标准），这在目前的气候中很少被观察到。全国极端热浪重现期也明显缩短。此外，预计夏季月份全国平均降雨量将增加约 6%，东部山区的增幅最大（超过 10%），如锡尔赫特和吉大港。同时，模拟了极端降雨的微小变化。我们的结果表明，孟加拉国在不久的将来特别容易受到极端气候的影响，