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Do increasing horizontal resolution and downscaling approaches produce a skillful thunderstorm forecast?
Natural Hazards ( IF 3.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-06 , DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04893-5
Kumari Priya 1 , Krishna K. Osuri 1 , Raghu Nadimpalli 2
Affiliation  

The timely prediction of thunderstorms (TS) is always a challenging task for operational and research community. The present study is aimed to address the credibility of the high grid-spacing and downscaling approach for improved simulation of TS. Fourteen TS are simulated with different domain configurations using weather research and forecasting (WRF) model. Two nested domains with 9–3 km (known as DD3), and 6–2 km (DD2), and 3 km single domain (SD3) are considered for simulations. Results indicate that the high-resolution DD2 has improved 2-m temperature (T2), 2-m relative humidity (RH2), and 10-m wind speed (WS10) at different stages of TS. The average mean error of T2 and RH2 in the DD2 experiment is 0.7 °C, − 6% during the mature stage, and 0.2 °C, − 4% at dissipating stage. The error in SD3 and DD3 is relatively higher (9–17% for T2 and 20–60% for RH2). Better horizontal and vertical representation of thermodynamic variables in DD2 run reinforces the atmosphere to initiate and intensify the convection in the right place. The DD2 could show slightly higher instability (convective available potential energy, CAPE, 3188 J kg−1) as compared with DD3 (3164 J kg−1) and SD3 (3020 J kg−1). The model is biased to simulate early TS activity. DD2 run could simulate the formation, mature and dissipation stages with fewer timing errors (− 1.35 h, − 1.5 h, and − 2.6 h, respectively) than other experiments. The critical success index of the DD2 run is higher for all the rainfall thresholds; however, it is more than 0.2 up to 2.5 mm h−1. The results highlight that high resolution nested configuration yields better simulation skills than the single domain configuration.



中文翻译:

提高水平分辨率和缩小尺度的方法是否会产生熟练的雷暴预报?

及时预测雷暴 (TS) 始终是运营和研究界的一项具有挑战性的任务。本研究旨在解决用于改进 TS 模拟的高网格间距和缩小方法的可信度。使用天气研究和预报 (WRF) 模型对 14 个 TS 进行了不同域配置的模拟。模拟中考虑了两个具有 9-3 公里(称为 DD3)、6-2 公里(DD2)和 3 公里单域(SD3)的嵌套域。结果表明,高分辨率 DD2 在 TS 的不同阶段改善了 2 米温度 (T2)、2 米相对湿度 (RH2) 和 10 米风速 (WS10)。DD2 实验中 T2 和 RH2 的平均误差在成熟阶段为 0.7 °C,- 6%,在消散阶段为 0.2 °C,- 4%。SD3 和 DD3 的误差相对较高(T2 为 9-17%,RH2 为 20-60%)。DD2 运行中热力学变量的更好的水平和垂直表示增强了大气,以在正确的位置启动和加强对流。DD2 可能表现出稍高的不稳定性(对流可用势能,CAPE,3188 J kg-1 ) 与 DD3 (3164 J kg -1 ) 和 SD3 (3020 J kg -1 ) 相比。该模型偏向于模拟早期 TS 活动。与其他实验相比,DD2 运行可以模拟形成、成熟和消散阶段,同时具有更少的计时误差(分别为 - 1.35 小时、- 1.5 小时和 - 2.6 小时)。对于所有降雨阈值,DD2 运行的临界成功指数都较高;然而,它大于0.2直到2.5mm h -1。结果突出显示,高分辨率嵌套配置比单域配置产生更好的模拟技能。

更新日期:2021-07-06
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